Recently observing the K-line trend of $MERL, I am increasingly convinced that: $0.5 is by no means an ordinary resistance level, but rather a critical watershed that determines the direction of the short-term trend. Once effectively broken through and stabilized, it will open up a new round of upward space; conversely, if repeatedly blocked and falls back, it may continue to oscillate or even decline in the short term.
1. Unlocking pressure is about to be concentrated and released, with the supply side facing a phased test.
Entering mid-December, $MERL will welcome a new round of important unlocking windows (mainly concentrated around December 12 to 19), and it is expected that tens of millions of tokens will gradually enter circulation.
This means:
- Early holders will be more cautious, trading rhythm will become more rational, avoiding blind chasing of highs;
- Some early investors or institutions have different costs, and when the price approaches their unlocking range, there may be natural reductions or hedging actions.
These are all normal supply adjustments in the mature stage of the project and do not signify sudden negative news. The key lies in whether the market can digest this additional circulation.
2. On-chain capital flows are clear, and institutional behavior is increasingly transparent.
Recent on-chain data shows that large addresses have transferred tens of millions of $MERL to mainstream exchanges like Bybit. Such public whale operations are usually not random actions, but rather pave the way for subsequent plans:
- Increase exchange depth and enhance overall liquidity;
- Prepare for institutional asset allocation, hedging, or large transactions;
- Optimize positions before the unlocking window.
Because these actions are completely transparent, other players can judge the attitude of mainstream capital accordingly, allowing for more precise adjustments to their strategies.
Overall, $MERL is still in a phase of accumulation. $0.5, as a psychological and technical double threshold, will determine the strength of the bulls and bears in the short term. Unlocking pressure + transparent on-chain actions are all laying the groundwork for the next directional market.
I recommend that everyone closely monitor the price's multiple attempts at $0.5, as well as whether the trading volume increases. A breakthrough indicates bullish sentiment, while a failure to hold suggests a need to be wary of correction risks.
