As we enter the final days of 2025, specifically on December 10th, the cryptocurrency market is holding its breath. "Bitcoin" (BTC) is currently trading in the range of $90,000 - $92,000, putting investors in front of a critical question: Does the leading currency have enough momentum to achieve a final leap and break the psychological barrier of $100,000 before the bells toll for 2026?
The answer lies in a careful reading of the "Prediction Markets" and macroeconomic trends that currently shape the financial landscape.
What do the prediction markets say?
Data from leading platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi indicate a sharp division in market sentiment. While optimism prevailed earlier this year, current odds show a "mixed odds" scenario regarding the price reaching $100,000 before January 1.
Buyers beware: bettors in these markets see time pressing on the price, especially with the fierce resistance the currency faced at levels of $98,000 previously.
Betting on the "Santa Rally": Conversely, a significant percentage is still betting on a seasonal upward wave in the second half of December, driven by the Federal's recent decisions.
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Economic scene: The Fed and ETFs are at the helm
The price of Bitcoin does not move in a vacuum; it is currently governed by two main factors:
1. The Federal Reserve's decision (The Fed):
All eyes today are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Interest rate monitoring tools indicate a probability of over 87% for a quarter-point rate cut. If Jerome Powell's tone is dovish regarding the 2026 policy, it might be the "fuel" that Bitcoin needs to break through the current resistance.
2. Return of institutional flows:
Shortly after a period of volatility, spot ETFs have returned to record strong positive inflows starting December 9, led by major funds like BlackRock's IBIT. The return of institutions buying aggressively at levels of $90,000 provides a reassuring signal that the "whales" are still betting on the rise.
Revising expectations: a new reality
Many prominent analysts, including institutions like Standard Chartered and experts like Tom Lee, have adjusted their year-end expectations to be more realistic, lowering the immediate expectation ceiling from $150,000 to a range of $100,000 - $125,000.
This "refinement" of expectations does not mean negativity; rather, it reflects the maturity of the market, which has become less influenced by old models (such as the traditional halving cycle) and more connected to global liquidity.
Summary for investors
The road to $100K before 2026 is narrow but not impossible. The key lies in Bitcoin's ability to maintain support at $90,000 and break through the $94,500 area with high trading volume following the Federal's announcements.
The coming days will be a real test of investors' patience, either a historic celebration for New Year's or establishing a strong price base for the launch of 2026.
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