The live broadcast room opened a WLFI short position at 0.1482 in the evening. Let's briefly discuss why I chose to short at 0.1482?
① 1 Hour: The short cycle has already formed a standard bearish structure.
First, look at the 1-hour level,
Light yellow EMA20 and dark yellow MA20 have clearly turned down,
And the two 20 moving averages are pressing above the price,
The lower light gray EMA120 and dark gray MA120 have also flattened and turned down, with all 20 breaking below 120, forming a three-dimensional bearish divergence.
What does this structure mean?
Short-term rebounds are basically pressed down by the 20 moving average, and rebounds only provide better entry prices for shorts, while going long is just going against the trend. So I'd rather wait for the price to fail to pull back and take a short around 0.1482, rather than gamble on a rebound.
② 4 Hours: 20 crosses below 120, the trend has just switched from consolidation to bearish.
The key is in the 4 hours:
Light yellow EMA20 and dark yellow MA20 have just crossed below light gray EMA120 and dark gray MA120,
The four moving averages have started to open downwards, a typical bearish ribbon has just opened;
The current price has stabilized below the four moving averages, and the upper edge of the previous consolidation zone (red FVG zone) has also turned into resistance.
What does this indicate?
The logic of 4 hours is: the previous upper edge of consolidation has begun to turn into a new round of downward “ceiling.” As long as the moving averages and FVG supply zone around 0.150～0.152 are not reclaimed, the 4-hour bearish trend will continue to dominate, and I will trade in line with the wave of the “trend just turned.”
③ Daily: Breaks below the 20-day moving average, the medium-term upward trend comes to a pause.
Let's pull back to the daily chart:
The price has effectively broken below the daily 20 moving average,
The upper 20-day moving average has started to flatten, and the previously slow upward bullish structure has been interrupted.
In other words, the medium-term upward wave has come to a pause, and we are now in a state of “below the daily 20, 4-hour bearish, 1-hour bearish divergence,” with bulls having no advantage. In this environment, my short position aligns with the medium-short term structure, rather than betting on an extreme position.
So I short in line with the trend, waiting for the trend to provide answers, rather than gambling on the bottom halfway up the mountain. I set a take profit order at the recent support of 0.1347 before bed. Good night 🌙
The above is just my personal trading record and thought sharing, not constituting any investment advice. The market has risks, and everyone should make independent decisions based on their own positions and rhythms.
