The technical analysis of Uniswap (UNI) clearly shows downward trend dominance on the larger timeframe (daily), while the market is attempting to find temporary stability within the current support range.
1. Overall Trend (Daily View - D1): Major Downward Trend
The daily timeframe is what sets the overall tone, and it clearly indicates that UNI/USDT is in a clear downward trend.
* Trend structure (exponential moving averages - EMAs): The price of UNI closes at $5.38, trading below all major exponential moving averages, confirming selling dominance:
* EMA 20: $5.91
* EMA 50: $6.37
* EMA 200: $7.50
* Summary: As long as the price remains below the EMA 20 ($5.91), any rises are merely counter-trend movements and are likely to be met with selling.
* Momentum and exhaustion (RSI, MACD):
* The daily RSI14 is at 38.9, which is weak but not in the complete oversold area. This means that bears (sellers) are in control, but panic or complete capitulation that usually attracts big buyers has not yet been reached.
* The daily MACD indicates that momentum is still bearish, but it is not accelerating violently. Selling pressure is steady, which could lead to a gradual decline or a slow bottom formation rather than a sudden "V" reversal.
* Volatility and range (Bollinger Bands):
* The price closes near the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands ($5.30).
* Summary: The $5.30 area is the first area where some buying or at least profit-taking by short-term sellers is expected.
2. Immediate context (hourly view - H1): Temporary stability
The hourly chart reiterates the daily downward trend but shows a temporary pause in movement.
* Trend (Hourly EMAs): The price ($5.38) is still below all hourly averages (EMA 20 at $5.44, EMA 50 at $5.53). This means that sellers are still in control of the short-term trend.
* Momentum: The hourly RSI14 aligns with the daily (around 39.4), which is weak but not excessively sold. The hourly MACD is flat and level, indicating a pause in the downward rush.
* Summary: The market is currently experiencing a sideways accumulation phase before the next push, with the overall trend remaining bearish.
3. Execution lens (15 minutes - M15): Narrow and neutral range
The 15-minute chart is currently neutral and oscillating in a very tight range around $5.37-$5.38. This confirms that the market is in a waiting area, and the next directional movement will likely emerge upon breaking this range, typically aligning with the larger daily trend.
4. The market environment and fundamentals
* Market environment: The fear and greed index is at 29 (fear), indicating a general aversion to risk. Bitcoin's dominance prevails over decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens like UNI.
* Uniswap fundamentals: Protocol metrics remain strong, with Uniswap V3 generating massive cumulative fees. However, the price of UNI is currently trading below a direct indication of protocol usage; rather, it drifts under the influence of "risk-averse" flows in the broader market.
5. Expected main scenarios
A. Main scenario: continuous decline (Trend-Following)
The most likely scenario is a continuation of the downward trend or intermittent consolidation below $6.
* Action plan: corrective rises must fail to break through the immediate resistances ($5.48-$5.53) or the main resistance ($5.90-$6.00).
* Break point: a clear break and daily close below $5.24 (daily support S1).
* Downside targets (in case of a collapse): the next logical area to drop is $4.80–$5.00.
B. Bullish scenario (counter-trend)
This scenario requires strong action from buyers to change the overall picture:
* Holding at support: maintaining the support area of $5.24–$5.30 and preventing a daily close below it.
* Regaining key levels: a sustainable rise above the daily pivot ($5.42), then regaining the daily EMA 20 around $5.90.
* Upside targets: after surpassing $5.90, the next target is $6.30–$6.40 (at daily EMA 50).
* Bullish scenario cancellation: daily close below $5.24 with increasing trading volume.
6. Summary and positioning
* Current situation: UNI is still in a clear downward trend (D1) with a temporary short-term consolidation (H1/M15).
* Advice for traders: any current long positions are considered counter-trend and depend on the support of the $5.24-$5.30 area. Traders looking to sell (Short) should wait for corrective rises to fail and resist the price, rather than blindly chasing collapses toward the current support.
Key levels to watch:
* Critical support: $5.24
* Immediate battle point: $5.42 (daily pivot)
* Main resistance of the trend: $5.90 (daily EMA 20)
