The US, China, and Hong Kong have a market holiday today, so regarding macro data, it's pretty much a calm day.

"Almost," because overnight the inflation data for Japan for May and the meeting minutes from the Bank of Japan's monetary policy session were released. There are important points in there.

The numbers are as follows:

  • Japan's national core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) for May is at 1.4%, matching the forecast and the previous figure of 1.4%.

  • Japan's National CPI (MoM) (May): 0.4% compared to the previous figure of 0.1%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan today issued two "hawkish" signals:

  • Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ryozo Himino, stated that inflation could rise above the 2% target, and a delayed response from the central bank could harm the economy. Therefore, if prices continue to press, the interest rate will be raised again.

  • According to the protocol, some members of the Bank of Japan advocated for faster rate hikes - as often as "once every few months" if inflation risks escalate.

Let’s briefly remind why this is all so important - low rates and a cheap yen have opened up opportunities for cheap liquidity and financing for carry trades (trading borrowed funds at low or even zero interest). Any tightening of this policy reduces global (!) risk appetite. If the yen continues to strengthen, it will remain a problem for risk asset markets.

Previous rate hikes by the Bank of Japan:

  • August 2024 - BTC dropped around -26% in 8 days. That infamous August "Black Swan."

  • January 2025 - BTC declined approximately -25% over 20 days.

  • December 2025 - BTC has already encountered a new rise in oversold conditions, so there was initially a bounce from $88,000 to $97,924 in January 2026. But then everything tanked down to $60,000.

  • June 2026 - BTC faced a decision on June 16 to raise rates by another 0.25 percentage points around $66,600. And by June 19, the price was already $62,500. Although this time the central bank decided to maintain the bond-buying program, which should support risk appetite in the markets - today’s "hawkish" news is unlikely to maintain positivity. Unless good liquidity news comes from "other fronts" for the crypto market. But the US Fed meeting on June 17 and the speech by the new head of the agency, Waller, cast doubt on that chance.