Proekt_73
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Мы в Twitter и др - @Proekt_73. Анализ крипторынка, новости, сделки с объяснением. Не даем финансовых рекомендаций, DYOR! Тупые комменты, "вангования" - бан
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BIT On Target: BTC may prove to be more resilient to geopolitical shocks than the markets expect.
BIT On Target: BTC may prove to be more resilient to geopolitical shocks than the markets expect. BUT under one condition - the conflict should not seriously and long-term impact energy and logistics.
By the way, BIT On Target is the former Matrixport. We are getting used to the new name and the new report design. The main point from the report:
By the way, BIT On Target is the former Matrixport. We are getting used to the new name and the new report design. The main point from the report:
BTC has returned to a stable downtrend on the 30-minute timeframe, with target densities up to $68,020. And looking at the bigger picture - even down to $66,670.
As seen on the 5-minute timeframe, the price is being held from falling by the zone of 69,595-69,736$. Its breakout could impulsively push the price down to the zone of 68,381-68,510$. This resonates with the layouts on horizontal levels that have already been discussed - as long as the price is below 69 788$ , it aims for $68,793.
The market decline began at the start of trading on the American stock market. Both the stock market and the crypto market received a downward impulse. Overall, the stock market has been falling for the past few days - in a new tournament on Trading View, where this time the TOPs of S&P 500 (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, GOOGL, AMZN, META) are exclusively shorted and betting on a decline, they have reached 559th place out of 37,415 in recent days. So the pain is not only for the crypto market.
As seen on the 5-minute timeframe, the price is being held from falling by the zone of 69,595-69,736$. Its breakout could impulsively push the price down to the zone of 68,381-68,510$. This resonates with the layouts on horizontal levels that have already been discussed - as long as the price is below 69 788$ , it aims for $68,793.
The market decline began at the start of trading on the American stock market. Both the stock market and the crypto market received a downward impulse. Overall, the stock market has been falling for the past few days - in a new tournament on Trading View, where this time the TOPs of S&P 500 (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, GOOGL, AMZN, META) are exclusively shorted and betting on a decline, they have reached 559th place out of 37,415 in recent days. So the pain is not only for the crypto market.
For BTC, the most unpleasant signal for bulls right now is the label of a potential high on the 3-day timeframe
For BTC, the most unpleasant signal for bulls right now is the label of a potential high on the 3-day timeframe.
In the current decline since March 17, let us remind you that similar labels are being worked out on the daily and 2-day timeframes.
The label on the 3-day chart is now an additional factor of pressure on the price. We still remain supporters of the bullish scenario as long as a stable uptrend with targets up to $81,716 is maintained on the daily timeframe. BUT this new label is an obvious problem and a risk factor for the growth scenario.
In the current decline since March 17, let us remind you that similar labels are being worked out on the daily and 2-day timeframes.
The label on the 3-day chart is now an additional factor of pressure on the price. We still remain supporters of the bullish scenario as long as a stable uptrend with targets up to $81,716 is maintained on the daily timeframe. BUT this new label is an obvious problem and a risk factor for the growth scenario.
Gold confirms the forecast of a long-term correction, for the first time since January 2025 - downtrend on the 3-day chart
Gold confirms the forecast of a long-term correction - for the first time since January 2025, there is a downtrend on the 3-day timeframe. Basic targets: 4,573$, 4,358$, 4,142$. Potential breakdown level: 5,113$.
A fact that is very important for both the stock and cryptocurrency markets. If we assume that amid the deflation of a huge bubble, a rise in risky assets will begin on TOP-defensive assets. Although the modern world can surprise - we proceed from technical analysis and historical patterns. Because we have no access to insights on wars.
A fact that is very important for both the stock and cryptocurrency markets. If we assume that amid the deflation of a huge bubble, a rise in risky assets will begin on TOP-defensive assets. Although the modern world can surprise - we proceed from technical analysis and historical patterns. Because we have no access to insights on wars.
For the first time since the morning of March 18 and the rate of 74 000$ BTC returned to a stable uptrend on the 15-minute timeframe.
This can be considered the start of processing numerous potential loyalty marks on the hourly timeframes that were discussed today.
The nearest resistances are already very close, both on this 15-minute timeframe and on the higher ones. For example, on the hourly timeframe, we are talking about a liquidity zone of 70 634-70 936$. Only by overcoming this zone can we talk about the next one - 74 016-74 307$.
The liquidity zone of 70 634-70 936$ as resistance clearly resonates with the horizontal levels of 70 452$ and 70 950$. When they are broken, the price will enter the zone of impulsive movements 70 950-72 775$. Also, on the way to the zone 74 016-74 307$ , there are also horizontal levels of 73 273$ and 73 770$ as resistances.
The key point now for the bulls is to overcome 70 634-70 936$. Otherwise, it goes down.
This can be considered the start of processing numerous potential loyalty marks on the hourly timeframes that were discussed today.
The nearest resistances are already very close, both on this 15-minute timeframe and on the higher ones. For example, on the hourly timeframe, we are talking about a liquidity zone of 70 634-70 936$. Only by overcoming this zone can we talk about the next one - 74 016-74 307$.
The liquidity zone of 70 634-70 936$ as resistance clearly resonates with the horizontal levels of 70 452$ and 70 950$. When they are broken, the price will enter the zone of impulsive movements 70 950-72 775$. Also, on the way to the zone 74 016-74 307$ , there are also horizontal levels of 73 273$ and 73 770$ as resistances.
The key point now for the bulls is to overcome 70 634-70 936$. Otherwise, it goes down.
Senior hourly time frames for BTC continue to "negate" - a stable downtrend has appeared on the 8-hour time frame. With base targets of $68,789, $67,124, $65,459. The level of potential breakdown is $72,952.
Of course, there is an example of a similar downtrend on March 8, which turned out to be false. At that time, the price set a low at 66 000$ and went up to $76,000. The uptrend on the daily time frame - there is a chance that this time it could be the same. Or there will be a partial fulfillment of the downtrend. A squeeze down to 67 124$ would not be a big problem for the uptrend on the daily.
Overall, of course, new downtrends on the hourly time frames are negative. The key question now is maintaining the uptrend on the daily time frame. If it is broken - it would already be an extremely negative picture for the bulls. Then we will have to raise the topic of the "Bear Flag" and the repetition of the scenario from May-June 2022. From which, let’s remind, due to the uptrend on the daily since March 17, we have refused.
Of course, there is an example of a similar downtrend on March 8, which turned out to be false. At that time, the price set a low at 66 000$ and went up to $76,000. The uptrend on the daily time frame - there is a chance that this time it could be the same. Or there will be a partial fulfillment of the downtrend. A squeeze down to 67 124$ would not be a big problem for the uptrend on the daily.
Overall, of course, new downtrends on the hourly time frames are negative. The key question now is maintaining the uptrend on the daily time frame. If it is broken - it would already be an extremely negative picture for the bulls. Then we will have to raise the topic of the "Bear Flag" and the repetition of the scenario from May-June 2022. From which, let’s remind, due to the uptrend on the daily since March 17, we have refused.
As seen from the 5-minute timeframe for BTC, each uptrend is an increasingly strong attempt to "hook on". However, once again (the third time since morning), the uptrend on the 5-minute chart has been broken, and there is a solid target zone in the downtrend up to $68,044.
As long as the downtrend on the 5-minute timeframe is relevant, the scenario from the analysis with a move into the liquidity zone of $67,523-$68,122 remains relevant. The chances for bulls to break - if the price starts to settle above $69,490. This is the level of potential breakdown of the downtrend on the 5-minute timeframe. For now, the price is below this level and cannot settle above the EMA 50 - sellers continue to dominate.
As long as the downtrend on the 5-minute timeframe is relevant, the scenario from the analysis with a move into the liquidity zone of $67,523-$68,122 remains relevant. The chances for bulls to break - if the price starts to settle above $69,490. This is the level of potential breakdown of the downtrend on the 5-minute timeframe. For now, the price is below this level and cannot settle above the EMA 50 - sellers continue to dominate.
BTC today also continues its downward movement, engulfing the zone of 69,980-70,337$.
BTC today also continues its downward movement, engulfing the zone of 69,980-70,337$.
Now, as already mentioned, this opens the way to the next zone on the hourly timeframe, 67,523-68,122$.
Now, for #BTC to go to 67,523-68,122$, the price needs to:
- close the 3-hour candle below 69,719$, which will engulf the zone of 69,719-70,606$.
Now, as already mentioned, this opens the way to the next zone on the hourly timeframe, 67,523-68,122$.
Now, for #BTC to go to 67,523-68,122$, the price needs to:
- close the 3-hour candle below 69,719$, which will engulf the zone of 69,719-70,606$.
Tokenized gold XAUT has already reached the third target for decline based on patterns, $4,529.
Tokenized gold XAUT has already reached the third target for decline based on patterns, $4,529. Without the expected bounce. Short position with 17 leverage from the level $5,117 on March 6 - already in paper profit +191%.
The third target based on patterns has already fully achieved the "Bear Flag" target. At the same time, there is a third Strong signal for potential loyalty on the hourly timeframe. And there is already a second Strong signal on the 6-hour timeframe.
The third target based on patterns has already fully achieved the "Bear Flag" target. At the same time, there is a third Strong signal for potential loyalty on the hourly timeframe. And there is already a second Strong signal on the 6-hour timeframe.
Important events for the crypto market on March 19 from the economic calendar
Important events for the crypto market on March 19 from the economic calendar.
After yesterday's meeting of the Federal Reserve, the rest of the week regarding macro data is already quiet. But today, let's remember, a whole range of central banks are also making decisions on interest rates. And the majority of central banks have already made their decisions today. The Bank of Japan - pause, the Swiss National Bank - pause, the Swedish central bank - pause. Yesterday, the Bank of Canada also had a pause in its decision. Everyone is currently following the example of the United States.
After yesterday's meeting of the Federal Reserve, the rest of the week regarding macro data is already quiet. But today, let's remember, a whole range of central banks are also making decisions on interest rates. And the majority of central banks have already made their decisions today. The Bank of Japan - pause, the Swiss National Bank - pause, the Swedish central bank - pause. Yesterday, the Bank of Canada also had a pause in its decision. Everyone is currently following the example of the United States.
The short on tokenized gold XAUT is currently at +140%, the decline continues without rebounds.
The short on tokenized gold XAUT is currently at +140%, the decline continues without rebounds. Again, in tandem with BTC, which is interesting.
The profitability of the position from the overnight post has noticeably increased, but for now, we are still inclined to add to the long-term short on a rebound rather than at the current price. Overall, considering that the position should become long-term, the goal is to achieve the highest possible average price. And this is not a path to adding at lows on rebound signals.
The profitability of the position from the overnight post has noticeably increased, but for now, we are still inclined to add to the long-term short on a rebound rather than at the current price. Overall, considering that the position should become long-term, the goal is to achieve the highest possible average price. And this is not a path to adding at lows on rebound signals.
BTC is working through the liquidity zone of 69,980-70,337$.
BTC is working through the liquidity zone of 69,980-70,337$ with a new downward impulse. This was mentioned in the night review. So far, as can be seen, buyers are trying to protect it after the squeeze to 69,478$. This is, let’s remember, a zone on the hourly timeframe; on the larger 3- and 4-hour timeframes, there is a wider and denser zone that has not yet been broken.
The current low of BTC during the dump is exactly 70,500$
The current low of BTC during the dump is exactly 70,500$. The price literally just barely did not reach the horizontal level of 70,452$.
Many times on March 18, it was pointed out that 70,452$ is the target level for decline and 69,980-70,337$ as the target zone.
From the latest:
"... On the older time frame, the price broke the support zone of 72,338-72,881$ and now the next one, as already mentioned, is only 69,980-70,337$... In case it doesn't hold at 69,980-70,337$ - this will open the way to the next zone 67,523-68,122$...
Many times on March 18, it was pointed out that 70,452$ is the target level for decline and 69,980-70,337$ as the target zone.
From the latest:
"... On the older time frame, the price broke the support zone of 72,338-72,881$ and now the next one, as already mentioned, is only 69,980-70,337$... In case it doesn't hold at 69,980-70,337$ - this will open the way to the next zone 67,523-68,122$...
Gold has fallen into a steady downtrend on the daily timeframe for the first time since November 2025
Gold has fallen into a steady downtrend on the daily timeframe for the first time since November 2025. Key targets: $4,761 and $4,648. Potential breakdown level: $5,158.
Yesterday we already mentioned that we are waiting for such a signal and will increase our short position. But, as already mentioned in the chat, - to increase without haste.
Our short position on tokenized gold #XAUT with a 17x leverage was opened on March 6 at a price of $5,117 after gold fell into a steady downtrend on the 12-hour timeframe again. Currently, the position is in profit by +100%. However, this paper profit only offsets the first unsuccessful short attempt with a loss closure.
Yesterday we already mentioned that we are waiting for such a signal and will increase our short position. But, as already mentioned in the chat, - to increase without haste.
Our short position on tokenized gold #XAUT with a 17x leverage was opened on March 6 at a price of $5,117 after gold fell into a steady downtrend on the 12-hour timeframe again. Currently, the position is in profit by +100%. However, this paper profit only offsets the first unsuccessful short attempt with a loss closure.
The most important responses from the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, to journalists' questions on March 18, 2026
The most important responses from the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, to journalists' questions on March 18, 2026.
Brief impressions - Powell is concerned about the rise in inflation and he has mentioned this many times. He understands the reasons, pointing out the accompanying issues that create obstacles to fighting inflation. However, in assessing the prospects of inflation and the consequences of current events, he has often said "we don't know". What could be worse for risky asset markets? At the same time, Powell emphatically stated that the current situation in the economy is NOT stagflation and parallels with the 1970s should not be drawn.
Brief impressions - Powell is concerned about the rise in inflation and he has mentioned this many times. He understands the reasons, pointing out the accompanying issues that create obstacles to fighting inflation. However, in assessing the prospects of inflation and the consequences of current events, he has often said "we don't know". What could be worse for risky asset markets? At the same time, Powell emphatically stated that the current situation in the economy is NOT stagflation and parallels with the 1970s should not be drawn.
Key points from the speech of the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, at the press conference on March 18, 2026
Key points from the speech of the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, at the press conference on March 18, 2026.
In brief, the conclusions - the rhetoric is not "hawkish". However, there is also no positivity for the risky asset markets. It gives the impression that the regulator is stuck in one period. Which, in general, is indeed the case.
In brief, the conclusions - the rhetoric is not "hawkish". However, there is also no positivity for the risky asset markets. It gives the impression that the regulator is stuck in one period. Which, in general, is indeed the case.
The US Fed acknowledged that the economy is stuck between a weak labor market and "sticky" inflation
The US Fed acknowledged that the economy is stuck between a weak labor market and "sticky" inflation. This is the main essence of the accompanying letter to the interest rate decision.
There is no good news for risky asset markets - nothing is visible in the letter.
Although the tone of the letter is as cautious as possible: economic activity is steadily growing, but job creation remains weak, inflation is still above target, and uncertainty regarding the forecast is heightened.
There is no good news for risky asset markets - nothing is visible in the letter.
Although the tone of the letter is as cautious as possible: economic activity is steadily growing, but job creation remains weak, inflation is still above target, and uncertainty regarding the forecast is heightened.
The US Federal Reserve has again kept the interest rate at 3.75%. The consensus forecast of market players and analysts has been fulfilled.
#BTC is currently showing local trends, working out similar local technical signals.
Overall, this is news that is already factored into the charts. And now the key point is the assessments of the economic situation and the mood within the Fed regarding future monetary policy.
We read the accompanying statement from the US Federal Reserve and await Powell's speech.
#BTC is currently showing local trends, working out similar local technical signals.
Overall, this is news that is already factored into the charts. And now the key point is the assessments of the economic situation and the mood within the Fed regarding future monetary policy.
We read the accompanying statement from the US Federal Reserve and await Powell's speech.
The price of BTC is showing a stable uptrend on the 5-minute time frame for the first time since 74 000$ . For us, this is the signal we needed to confirm an attempt to reverse from the potential low markers. Therefore, we added a long position. Now the entry level has shifted from 74 789,80$ to 73 272.80$, while the liquidation level has risen to 65 947.61$.
The breakeven level is 73 309.44$, but the goal is not to reach it, but at least minimize the paper loss in an unsuccessful long. We will monitor the situation. Actions are taken with increased risk because despite the abundance of strong signal low markers in the market on the hourly time frame - on the 3-hour we are in the seller's pressure zone. Also, the Fed is looming.
The breakeven level is 73 309.44$, but the goal is not to reach it, but at least minimize the paper loss in an unsuccessful long. We will monitor the situation. Actions are taken with increased risk because despite the abundance of strong signal low markers in the market on the hourly time frame - on the 3-hour we are in the seller's pressure zone. Also, the Fed is looming.
In just half an hour - the decision of the Federal Reserve of the USA on the interest rate. In an hour - the speech of the head of the Fed, Powell. As always, we will try to report all important information as quickly as possible. Meanwhile, it is worth worrying about the safety of open positions.
Trump has already prepared for the meeting, having already written on his Truth Social account "When will Powell lower interest rates when it's 'too late'? President Donald Trump". The chances there are, of course, practically zero, as we wrote today.
Interestingly, based on the potential loyalty marks on the hourly and other time frames, the crypto market looks set for a rebound. This does not mean that we should expect a rate cut. But, perhaps, in the voting distribution, we will see an even more noticeable divide than usual. Or theses that will allow us to expect a reduction earlier than in September. Although with the inflation data as it is now - it’s hard to believe.
Purely technically, the market shows readiness for a rebound. But whether these signals will play out and if they do - on what? That is already the second question.
Trump has already prepared for the meeting, having already written on his Truth Social account "When will Powell lower interest rates when it's 'too late'? President Donald Trump". The chances there are, of course, practically zero, as we wrote today.
Interestingly, based on the potential loyalty marks on the hourly and other time frames, the crypto market looks set for a rebound. This does not mean that we should expect a rate cut. But, perhaps, in the voting distribution, we will see an even more noticeable divide than usual. Or theses that will allow us to expect a reduction earlier than in September. Although with the inflation data as it is now - it’s hard to believe.
Purely technically, the market shows readiness for a rebound. But whether these signals will play out and if they do - on what? That is already the second question.
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