Proekt_73
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Proekt_73
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Мы в Twitter и др - @Proekt_73. Анализ крипторынка, новости, сделки с объяснением. Не даем финансовых рекомендаций, DYOR! Тупые комменты, "вангования" - бан
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The OAK Index is pointing towards a BTC accumulation zone again.
Analysts at #OAKResearch report that their OAK Index is currently in a high zone, which historically has often aligned with favorable conditions for accumulating #BTC.
The OAK Index is a metric ranging from 0 to 100 that combines dozens of on-chain, macroeconomic, and market metrics into a single assessment of buying opportunities. The higher the value, the better, according to the model's logic, the conditions for accumulating BTC. The lower the value, the less potential return relative to the risk taken.
The chart shows several important historical points:
- November 2022 - OAK around 90, #BTC around $16,300, the bear market bottom,
- December 2024 - OAK around 8, #BTC above $104,000, overheating zone,
- February-March 2026 - OAK 90-96, #BTC in the range of $66,000-$70,000, accumulation zone on the dip.
As history shows, the tool won’t perfectly pinpoint the bottom/high (and not much can do that), but at the very least, it provides an interesting period for buys and sells.
Analysts at #OAKResearch report that their OAK Index is currently in a high zone, which historically has often aligned with favorable conditions for accumulating #BTC.
The OAK Index is a metric ranging from 0 to 100 that combines dozens of on-chain, macroeconomic, and market metrics into a single assessment of buying opportunities. The higher the value, the better, according to the model's logic, the conditions for accumulating BTC. The lower the value, the less potential return relative to the risk taken.
The chart shows several important historical points:
- November 2022 - OAK around 90, #BTC around $16,300, the bear market bottom,
- December 2024 - OAK around 8, #BTC above $104,000, overheating zone,
- February-March 2026 - OAK 90-96, #BTC in the range of $66,000-$70,000, accumulation zone on the dip.
As history shows, the tool won’t perfectly pinpoint the bottom/high (and not much can do that), but at the very least, it provides an interesting period for buys and sells.
K33 Research: Over half of the BTC supply is back in the red, price near the bottom.
According to #K33, more than 50% of the circulating supply of #BTC is currently trading at a loss. Historically, such levels have been rare and most often observed near the bottoms of major bear markets.
On the candlestick chart, it's clear that the zone above 50% previously appeared only during periods of significant market stress:
- 2011,
- 2015,
- 2019,
- 2022,
- and now - 2026.
Traditional disclaimer - this doesn't mean the bottom is definitely in. The market can linger in pain longer than we’d like (and longer than participants can stay solvent!), and capitulation can stretch on for weeks or months. But the fact that over half of the #BTC supply is in the red indicates a deep market cleanup and is good news. If you’re not in that 50% with Bitcoin at a loss, of course 😁
According to #K33, more than 50% of the circulating supply of #BTC is currently trading at a loss. Historically, such levels have been rare and most often observed near the bottoms of major bear markets.
On the candlestick chart, it's clear that the zone above 50% previously appeared only during periods of significant market stress:
- 2011,
- 2015,
- 2019,
- 2022,
- and now - 2026.
Traditional disclaimer - this doesn't mean the bottom is definitely in. The market can linger in pain longer than we’d like (and longer than participants can stay solvent!), and capitulation can stretch on for weeks or months. But the fact that over half of the #BTC supply is in the red indicates a deep market cleanup and is good news. If you’re not in that 50% with Bitcoin at a loss, of course 😁
At SeerQuant, they also believe that BTC holders have not yet gone through the final capitulation.
Analysts at #SeerQuant point out that the LTH NUPL metric for #BTC has noticeably decreased in the current cycle, but it hasn't dipped below zero yet. Specifically, a drop below zero in past bear markets coincided with the final capitulation of long-term holders.
LTH NUPL shows the unrealized profit or loss of long-term #BTC holders. If the metric is above zero, this group is still in profit on average. If it's below zero, long-term holders are already facing unrealized losses.
Historically, a crucial signal appeared when the LTH NUPL dipped into the negative zone. This happened before major market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
Right now, the situation is different. In this cycle, the LTH NUPL has already dropped below 25%, meaning the profits of long-term holders have significantly shrunk. BUT we haven't seen a negative zone yet. According to this metric, the deep capitulation that previously marked the final stages of a bear market has not occurred yet. This is the logic behind the expectation - the final shakeout and a real "bloodbath", based on this metric, are still ahead.
Analysts at #SeerQuant point out that the LTH NUPL metric for #BTC has noticeably decreased in the current cycle, but it hasn't dipped below zero yet. Specifically, a drop below zero in past bear markets coincided with the final capitulation of long-term holders.
LTH NUPL shows the unrealized profit or loss of long-term #BTC holders. If the metric is above zero, this group is still in profit on average. If it's below zero, long-term holders are already facing unrealized losses.
Historically, a crucial signal appeared when the LTH NUPL dipped into the negative zone. This happened before major market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
Right now, the situation is different. In this cycle, the LTH NUPL has already dropped below 25%, meaning the profits of long-term holders have significantly shrunk. BUT we haven't seen a negative zone yet. According to this metric, the deep capitulation that previously marked the final stages of a bear market has not occurred yet. This is the logic behind the expectation - the final shakeout and a real "bloodbath", based on this metric, are still ahead.
CryptoQuant: The annual growth of BTC purchases by spot ETFs has nearly hit zero.
According to data from #CryptoQuant, shared by analyst Julio Moreno, one of the major sources of demand in the current BTC cycle has effectively stopped expanding.
It's not that ETFs aren't holding #BTC at all; it's about the growth rates of purchases. Previously, ETFs were actively stacking up their reserves, creating a strong additional demand in the market. Now, that increase has almost completely dried up.
The chart shows that back in early 2025, the annual growth of demand from ETFs was extremely high, but then it started to gradually decline. By June 2026, here we are.
Moreno concludes: demand for #BTC is still in contraction. Prices may bounce, and some days may look better, but structurally, the market hasn’t yet seen a sustainable return of capital.
According to data from #CryptoQuant, shared by analyst Julio Moreno, one of the major sources of demand in the current BTC cycle has effectively stopped expanding.
It's not that ETFs aren't holding #BTC at all; it's about the growth rates of purchases. Previously, ETFs were actively stacking up their reserves, creating a strong additional demand in the market. Now, that increase has almost completely dried up.
The chart shows that back in early 2025, the annual growth of demand from ETFs was extremely high, but then it started to gradually decline. By June 2026, here we are.
Moreno concludes: demand for #BTC is still in contraction. Prices may bounce, and some days may look better, but structurally, the market hasn’t yet seen a sustainable return of capital.
Verified
BTC is currently "looking" down after the FOMC meeting, having entered a downtrend already on the 30-minute TF.
We're highlighting a segment on the 5-minute TF of the BTC chart that reacts to the news from the FOMC.
It seems market players weren't too thrilled about Warsh's speech, but rather Trump's "whatever" reaction to the latest pause in interest rates. Plus, his suggestion that rates could actually be raised.
We're holding our short position opened at $66,246.30 and keeping an eye on the market. On our trigger 3-hour TF, the price tested the potential breakdown level of the downtrend and is now approaching the second key target of $64,009.
We're highlighting a segment on the 5-minute TF of the BTC chart that reacts to the news from the FOMC.
It seems market players weren't too thrilled about Warsh's speech, but rather Trump's "whatever" reaction to the latest pause in interest rates. Plus, his suggestion that rates could actually be raised.
We're holding our short position opened at $66,246.30 and keeping an eye on the market. On our trigger 3-hour TF, the price tested the potential breakdown level of the downtrend and is now approaching the second key target of $64,009.
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