Proekt_73
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Мы в Twitter и др - @Proekt_73. Анализ крипторынка, новости, сделки с объяснением. Не даем финансовых рекомендаций, DYOR! Тупые комменты, "вангования" - бан
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As expected, the US Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 3.75%. Details
As expected, the US Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 3.75%.
The head of the department, Powell, displayed quite a "dovish" rhetoric. In particular, he expressed satisfaction with the results of work on inflation and how the economy has faced the challenges of tariffs. These had previously been described as a key inflationary risk in the near term.
The head of the department, Powell, displayed quite a "dovish" rhetoric. In particular, he expressed satisfaction with the results of work on inflation and how the economy has faced the challenges of tariffs. These had previously been described as a key inflationary risk in the near term.
Matrixport's new report today discusses the "quietly disappearing" stablecoin liquidity.
Matrixport's new report today discusses the "quietly disappearing" stablecoin liquidity.
The #Matrixport chart shows an important detail - #USDT is still maintaining/increasing its capitalization (around $186.5 billion, close to the cycle's peak), while #USDC has noticeably decreased - approximately $71.5 billion from a peak of around $78.0 billion. This means not all stablecoin liquidity has gone to zero; rather, liquidity is being redistributed and partially flowing out, with USDC appearing the weakest. The text accompanying the chart explicitly states that in the last approximately 6 weeks, USDC has seen about $6.5 billion in net redemptions - this is already a significant downside to the "gunpowder" for quickly buying back dips in the market.
The #Matrixport chart shows an important detail - #USDT is still maintaining/increasing its capitalization (around $186.5 billion, close to the cycle's peak), while #USDC has noticeably decreased - approximately $71.5 billion from a peak of around $78.0 billion. This means not all stablecoin liquidity has gone to zero; rather, liquidity is being redistributed and partially flowing out, with USDC appearing the weakest. The text accompanying the chart explicitly states that in the last approximately 6 weeks, USDC has seen about $6.5 billion in net redemptions - this is already a significant downside to the "gunpowder" for quickly buying back dips in the market.
Swissblock: in the market, a combination that has historically well "illuminated" the start of strong phases for BTC.
On the chart from #Swissblock, the same pattern repeats: a sharp drop in Network Growth (a sharp decline in the dynamics of network growth) simultaneously with a high Risk Index mode (high risk mode). And then the market often did what it usually does after a liquidity squeeze and capitulation - transitioned into a substantial uptrend. Historically, such combinations have "spoiled" major movements: after the marked zones, the price of #BTC went through +1500%, +130%, +250%, +110%. It's clear that one shouldn't dream of thousands of percent - this was at the start of the asset's existence. But nevertheless.
What is important now on the current chart: Network Growth has fallen to 11.36, and the Risk Index remains at 55 - meaning the risk is high, and the network growth has already dropped. The logic of Swissblock is simple: when the risk has already been "digested", and the network growth falls sharply (usually against a backdrop of fear/disappointment) - #BTC, often "arriving late to the party", then catches up with a powerful impulse.
There will be many skeptics of such a scenario now, that's clear. And for now, we are indeed among them. But if the asset returns a sustainable uptrend according to our indicator on the weekly timeframe - we will quickly turn into optimists.
On the chart from #Swissblock, the same pattern repeats: a sharp drop in Network Growth (a sharp decline in the dynamics of network growth) simultaneously with a high Risk Index mode (high risk mode). And then the market often did what it usually does after a liquidity squeeze and capitulation - transitioned into a substantial uptrend. Historically, such combinations have "spoiled" major movements: after the marked zones, the price of #BTC went through +1500%, +130%, +250%, +110%. It's clear that one shouldn't dream of thousands of percent - this was at the start of the asset's existence. But nevertheless.
What is important now on the current chart: Network Growth has fallen to 11.36, and the Risk Index remains at 55 - meaning the risk is high, and the network growth has already dropped. The logic of Swissblock is simple: when the risk has already been "digested", and the network growth falls sharply (usually against a backdrop of fear/disappointment) - #BTC, often "arriving late to the party", then catches up with a powerful impulse.
There will be many skeptics of such a scenario now, that's clear. And for now, we are indeed among them. But if the asset returns a sustainable uptrend according to our indicator on the weekly timeframe - we will quickly turn into optimists.
Important events for the cryptocurrency market on January 28 from the economic calendar
Important events for the cryptocurrency market on January 28 from the economic calendar.
The most important thing, of course, will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve in the evening and especially the speech of the head of the department, Powell.
No surprises are expected from the regulator's decision - according to #CMEGroup, 97.2% of players are betting on a pause, while only 2.8% are betting on a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. So all attention is on the "notes" in the accompanying letter and the emphasis in Powell's speech.
The most important thing, of course, will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve in the evening and especially the speech of the head of the department, Powell.
No surprises are expected from the regulator's decision - according to #CMEGroup, 97.2% of players are betting on a pause, while only 2.8% are betting on a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. So all attention is on the "notes" in the accompanying letter and the emphasis in Powell's speech.
Three altcoins that are proving to be stronger than the market have today transitioned into a stable uptrend on the 12-hour timeframe. The market is still at a crossroads, so either these are the "early birds" of the upcoming growth, or the signal is false. What happens on such timeframes, though not often, does occur. Especially with the uptrends of altcoins. The suffering for which bulls have been enduring for more than a year.
In the list:
- #ASTER,
- #JUP,
- #PYTH.
Targets of the uptrend and levels of potential breakdown are in the screenshots.
What stands out about all three:
- the growth in recent days has been impulsive, and a pullback seems likely, so testing the levels of potential breakdown should not be ruled out,
- important intermediate support - EMA 50 on the 12-hour timeframe,
- the pullback for all three assets has already started.
The answer to the question "is this a reversal or a bounce?" still depends on the picture on higher timeframes - daily, 2-day, 3-day, and weekly. BUT if in the coming days altcoins begin a mass transition into an uptrend on the 12-hour timeframe - this can be considered a significant hint in favor of the "reversal" option.
In the list:
- #ASTER,
- #JUP,
- #PYTH.
Targets of the uptrend and levels of potential breakdown are in the screenshots.
What stands out about all three:
- the growth in recent days has been impulsive, and a pullback seems likely, so testing the levels of potential breakdown should not be ruled out,
- important intermediate support - EMA 50 on the 12-hour timeframe,
- the pullback for all three assets has already started.
The answer to the question "is this a reversal or a bounce?" still depends on the picture on higher timeframes - daily, 2-day, 3-day, and weekly. BUT if in the coming days altcoins begin a mass transition into an uptrend on the 12-hour timeframe - this can be considered a significant hint in favor of the "reversal" option.
BTC price breaks $90,000 and has entered a stable uptrend on the 4-hour timeframe.
BTC price breaks $90,000 and has entered a stable uptrend on the 4-hour timeframe. Key targets: $90,156, $91,105, $92,055. Potential breakdown level: $87,781.
"Dragon" and "Bullish Wedge" continue to play out, targets have been marked on the chart.
For now, the bullish scenario for the market is confirmed for the near future, and we are simply holding our long position from yesterday. We do not plan to add volume to the trade until either a test of potential breakdown levels of the uptrends on the 3- and 4-hour timeframes or a transition to a stable uptrend on the 12-hour timeframe occurs. And if we talk about what we expect to see sooner - it is indeed a correction. One of the important reasons is that P73 CryptoMarket Monitor has given signals of potential highs on the 4-hour timeframe for 10 assets from the TOP-200, including #ETH.
"Dragon" and "Bullish Wedge" continue to play out, targets have been marked on the chart.
For now, the bullish scenario for the market is confirmed for the near future, and we are simply holding our long position from yesterday. We do not plan to add volume to the trade until either a test of potential breakdown levels of the uptrends on the 3- and 4-hour timeframes or a transition to a stable uptrend on the 12-hour timeframe occurs. And if we talk about what we expect to see sooner - it is indeed a correction. One of the important reasons is that P73 CryptoMarket Monitor has given signals of potential highs on the 4-hour timeframe for 10 assets from the TOP-200, including #ETH.
TOP-10 AI & Big Data crypto projects by developer activity in January 2026 according to Santiment
TOP-10 AI & Big Data crypto projects by developer activity in January 2026 according to Santiment.
As always, the Notable GitHub Activity metric is the average number of significant development events per day on GitHub. #Santiment considers only meaningful GitHub events: real changes in code, infrastructure, and functionality. "Cosmetics", noise commits, and formal activity are maximally filtered out.
As always, the Notable GitHub Activity metric is the average number of significant development events per day on GitHub. #Santiment considers only meaningful GitHub events: real changes in code, infrastructure, and functionality. "Cosmetics", noise commits, and formal activity are maximally filtered out.
Cointelegraph expects ETH to recover to $3,300 in the near future
Cointelegraph expects ETH to recover to $3,300 in the near future. And #ETH currently looks like a market that is fearful but is starting to use the network again.
Against the backdrop of the general weakness in the crypto market, #ETH has dropped by -15.9% over the week, resulting in about $910 million in liquidations of bullish positions - hence the discussions about the 'break of support at $2,800' are warranted.
Against the backdrop of the general weakness in the crypto market, #ETH has dropped by -15.9% over the week, resulting in about $910 million in liquidations of bullish positions - hence the discussions about the 'break of support at $2,800' are warranted.
The crypto market at the beginning of a new day looks like it will continue to grow, the question is whether there will be a pullback.
The crypto market at the beginning of a new day looks like it will continue to grow, the question is whether there will be a local pullback.
Altcoins are currently showing even greater strength than #BTC. While BTC has established a steady uptrend on the 3-hour time frame - 11 altcoins from the TOP-200 have already shown an uptrend on the 4-hour time frame in this hour.
Altcoins are currently showing even greater strength than #BTC. While BTC has established a steady uptrend on the 3-hour time frame - 11 altcoins from the TOP-200 have already shown an uptrend on the 4-hour time frame in this hour.
The green candle for BTC changes the balance of power - just now the asset has transitioned into a stable uptrend on the 3-hour timeframe. The trigger for us in terms of opening speculative (!) trades. Basic targets: $89,804, $90,713, $91,622. The potential breakdown level is $87,530.
It is, of course, concerning that this growth coincided with the previously announced speech by US President Trump. Usually, growth during his speeches does not end positively. Plus, the price during this growth closed the nearest upper gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange at $86,610-$89,295. Giving -1 argument for further growth, if this is just a rebound. But we do not trade signs, historical patterns, and not even gaps; we trade trends. The trend for growth according to our indicator is there.
The fact that the transition was impulsive makes us wait for a price pullback, down to the potential breakdown level of $87,530. We opened a small volume, at 1/3 of the allocated trading amount, a long with a 30 leverage from the rate of $89,393.50. Further, we will see how the situation develops. When approaching $87,530$ - likely to add another 1/3.
For now, the nighttime idea with the "Dragon" with targets $91,225$ and $95,531$ and "Bullish Wedge" with a target of $95,840$ - is under consideration.
It is, of course, concerning that this growth coincided with the previously announced speech by US President Trump. Usually, growth during his speeches does not end positively. Plus, the price during this growth closed the nearest upper gap on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange at $86,610-$89,295. Giving -1 argument for further growth, if this is just a rebound. But we do not trade signs, historical patterns, and not even gaps; we trade trends. The trend for growth according to our indicator is there.
The fact that the transition was impulsive makes us wait for a price pullback, down to the potential breakdown level of $87,530. We opened a small volume, at 1/3 of the allocated trading amount, a long with a 30 leverage from the rate of $89,393.50. Further, we will see how the situation develops. When approaching $87,530$ - likely to add another 1/3.
For now, the nighttime idea with the "Dragon" with targets $91,225$ and $95,531$ and "Bullish Wedge" with a target of $95,840$ - is under consideration.
List of token and coin unlocks for the current week, January 26 - February 1, 2026
List of token and coin unlocks for the current week, January 26 - February 1, 2026. Summary information from #Cryptorank and #Dropstab. Two days behind - but all important unlocks of the week start only from the end of today.
Among the most notable: SIGN, TREE. By the way, we received TREE as an airdrop from Binance Square. And, like all assets received from them, we will sell them at the highs of the alt season (pause for the laughter of skeptics).
Among the most notable: SIGN, TREE. By the way, we received TREE as an airdrop from Binance Square. And, like all assets received from them, we will sell them at the highs of the alt season (pause for the laughter of skeptics).
CryptoQuant: the derivatives market is putting significant pressure on the BTC price, but the spot is holding for now. The index from #CryptoQuant called the Bitcoin Derivatives Market Pressure Index has dropped to 30.5 - this is the lowest in 30 days, while #BTC is still around $88,000. To put it simply - selling pressure is increasing, but the price is not collapsing, which means that for now, sales are being "absorbed". Without leading to a crash.
Currently, the key support level, according to #CryptoQuant's assessment, is $86,400. Near this zone, judging by the price behavior, a certain large buyer (one or several large entities) is absorbing the flow of sellers. Then one of two scenarios:
- IF 86 400$ holds and the pressure from derivatives starts to decrease - the market gets fuel for a sharp rebound/short squeeze (because sellers have already "fired their bullets", and ultimately could not lower the price).
- IF 86 400$ breaks - this will be a signal that the strength of the large buyer was insufficient, and then support turns into resistance, and the downward movement accelerates due to liquidation inertia. A new bloody cascade.
Currently, the key support level, according to #CryptoQuant's assessment, is $86,400. Near this zone, judging by the price behavior, a certain large buyer (one or several large entities) is absorbing the flow of sellers. Then one of two scenarios:
- IF 86 400$ holds and the pressure from derivatives starts to decrease - the market gets fuel for a sharp rebound/short squeeze (because sellers have already "fired their bullets", and ultimately could not lower the price).
- IF 86 400$ breaks - this will be a signal that the strength of the large buyer was insufficient, and then support turns into resistance, and the downward movement accelerates due to liquidation inertia. A new bloody cascade.
BTC is in no hurry to show the impulse execution of two bullish patterns and is again testing an important zone
BTC is in no hurry to show the impulse execution of two bullish patterns and is again testing the zone 87,457-87,799$. We remind you of the "Dragon" with targets of 91,225$ and 95,531$ and the "Bullish Wedge" with a target of 95,840$. We wrote about them at night. They have been formed, but have not yet even executed the nearest target.
In recent days, we have repeatedly stated that 87,457-87,799$ is an important support level, under which the range of impulse movements is 84,485-87,799$. Last time, the breakout at 87,799$ cost liquidations for 200,000 traders and a price drop to 86,074$. Most of this journey was covered by a single hourly candle. After that, a strong signal of potential lows on the hourly timeframe started a rebound, which led to the formation of bullish patterns and the start of their execution.
In recent days, we have repeatedly stated that 87,457-87,799$ is an important support level, under which the range of impulse movements is 84,485-87,799$. Last time, the breakout at 87,799$ cost liquidations for 200,000 traders and a price drop to 86,074$. Most of this journey was covered by a single hourly candle. After that, a strong signal of potential lows on the hourly timeframe started a rebound, which led to the formation of bullish patterns and the start of their execution.
Santiment: the total market capitalization of the 12 largest stablecoins has decreased by $2.24 billion. Over the last 10 days. This coincided with a drop in #BTC of about -8%. Together, it indicates that this is not a flow from stablecoins to risky assets, but rather an outflow from the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
Following #CryptoQuant, analysts at #Santiment also note the outflow of liquidity from stablecoins and the crypto market to traditional assets. In particular - the same gold and silver. The second chart from #Santiment today adds important context - on social media, the crowd's interest is shifting from crypto assets to metals. Initially, gold was "shooting up", now silver is already in hype - the crowd looks at where the "buzz" is.
This automatically cuts the quick purchasing power in the crypto market. After all, stablecoins are the basic liquidity for rebounds, and when their supply tightens, rebounds tend to be weak/short, and the market is harder to accelerate upwards. This is what we are observing now.
The capitalization of stablecoins is shrinking, and the market remains in a liquidity loss mode. And this is certainly an environment where altcoins struggle the most.
Following #CryptoQuant, analysts at #Santiment also note the outflow of liquidity from stablecoins and the crypto market to traditional assets. In particular - the same gold and silver. The second chart from #Santiment today adds important context - on social media, the crowd's interest is shifting from crypto assets to metals. Initially, gold was "shooting up", now silver is already in hype - the crowd looks at where the "buzz" is.
This automatically cuts the quick purchasing power in the crypto market. After all, stablecoins are the basic liquidity for rebounds, and when their supply tightens, rebounds tend to be weak/short, and the market is harder to accelerate upwards. This is what we are observing now.
The capitalization of stablecoins is shrinking, and the market remains in a liquidity loss mode. And this is certainly an environment where altcoins struggle the most.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant provides two opposing trends for the cryptocurrency market regarding stablecoins
On-chain data from CryptoQuant provides two opposing trends for the cryptocurrency market regarding stablecoins.
The first trend is that the total volume of stablecoins on the Ethereum network (ERC20) has begun to decline from its peak. This is evident in the first chart.
This, analysts emphasize, is a bearish signal: when the total supply of stablecoins is not increasing, it means that the influx of new dollar liquidity into the cryptocurrency market is weakening. When supply decreases and this occurs in a declining market, it means that stablecoins are being burned, and liquidity is being withdrawn from the market. There is a logical opinion that this is due to the outflow of liquidity from the cryptocurrency market to the gold and silver market, where bullish madness continues.
The first trend is that the total volume of stablecoins on the Ethereum network (ERC20) has begun to decline from its peak. This is evident in the first chart.
This, analysts emphasize, is a bearish signal: when the total supply of stablecoins is not increasing, it means that the influx of new dollar liquidity into the cryptocurrency market is weakening. When supply decreases and this occurs in a declining market, it means that stablecoins are being burned, and liquidity is being withdrawn from the market. There is a logical opinion that this is due to the outflow of liquidity from the cryptocurrency market to the gold and silver market, where bullish madness continues.
The bill on the structure of the crypto market will be considered by the U.S. Senate committee not on January 27, but on January 29
Correction to the calendar for the week - the bill on the structure of the crypto market will be considered by the U.S. Senate committee not on January 27, but on January 29. The meeting has been postponed, today is canceled. However, on January 29, there will be both this meeting and a lot of macro data. It will be a volatile day.
The U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry will hold a meeting specifically on January 29, and the agenda on its website clearly states the bill "On Intermediaries in the Digital Goods Market" (Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act). The meeting is scheduled for 10:30 AM Washington time (5:30 PM Kyiv / 6:30 PM MSK / 8:30 PM Astana).
The U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry will hold a meeting specifically on January 29, and the agenda on its website clearly states the bill "On Intermediaries in the Digital Goods Market" (Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act). The meeting is scheduled for 10:30 AM Washington time (5:30 PM Kyiv / 6:30 PM MSK / 8:30 PM Astana).
Matrixport: Why are central banks buying gold and why does this now look like negative advertising for BTC
Matrixport: Why are central banks buying gold - and why does this now look like negative advertising for BTC.
The "gold rush" has led cryptocurrency traders to start trading precious metals, while cryptocurrency analysts are analyzing precious metals.
In the new report from #Matrixport, the chart shows a divergence: gold is reaching new highs, while BTC is declining during the same period and trading around $88,000.
The "gold rush" has led cryptocurrency traders to start trading precious metals, while cryptocurrency analysts are analyzing precious metals.
In the new report from #Matrixport, the chart shows a divergence: gold is reaching new highs, while BTC is declining during the same period and trading around $88,000.
Complete economic calendar of events from January 26 to February 1, 2026, that could influence the cryptocurrency market.
Complete economic calendar of events from January 26 to February 1, 2026, that could influence the cryptocurrency market.
This week is crucial for the entire month because tomorrow, on Wednesday, there will be a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate. Although no one expects an interest rate cut, both the announcement of the decision and the accompanying letter/speech by Powell can lead to increased volatility. In a consensus of expectations regarding the rate, the greatest volatility is again expected during the speech of the Fed chair.
This week is crucial for the entire month because tomorrow, on Wednesday, there will be a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate. Although no one expects an interest rate cut, both the announcement of the decision and the accompanying letter/speech by Powell can lead to increased volatility. In a consensus of expectations regarding the rate, the greatest volatility is again expected during the speech of the Fed chair.
The closure of the 2-day candle has preserved the chances for a bull market
The closure of the 2-day candle has preserved the chances for a bull market. But this is a story of "winning the battle, but not the war." At least for now.
At the start of trading on the market on January 27, we see growth, which was predicted on January 26, when we wrote that immediately 30 assets from the TOP-200 showed a potential buy signal on the 12-hour timeframe.
At the start of trading on the market on January 27, we see growth, which was predicted on January 26, when we wrote that immediately 30 assets from the TOP-200 showed a potential buy signal on the 12-hour timeframe.
CryptoQuant: BTC showed realized losses of $4.5 billion - this is the highest in almost 3 years
CryptoQuant: BTC showed realized losses of $4.5 billion - this is the highest in almost 3 years. Real pain, people exited positions at a loss and the scale of this process is impressive.
The last time such a volume of realized losses occurred was in the spring of 2023, when #BTC was trading around $28,000, and prior to that, the market went through a year of bear market. People were selling on the rebound, having listened to various Peter Schiff types about targets falling below $10,000.
The last time such a volume of realized losses occurred was in the spring of 2023, when #BTC was trading around $28,000, and prior to that, the market went through a year of bear market. People were selling on the rebound, having listened to various Peter Schiff types about targets falling below $10,000.
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