CryptoQuant: BTC showed realized losses of $4.5 billion - this is the highest in almost 3 years. Real pain, people exited positions at a loss and the scale of this process is impressive.
The last time such a volume of realized losses occurred was in the spring of 2023, when #BTC was trading around $28,000, and prior to that, the market went through a year of bear market. People were selling on the rebound, having listened to various Peter Schiff types about targets falling below $10,000.
Such figures on losses, of course, do not appear on "light pullbacks". This is closer to a cleanup. Historically, after such spikes, there is often a "aftertaste": range, nervous bounces, repeated sell-offs. This is what we saw in 2023 on the BTC chart.
The very fact of the record loss is a sign that the market has already gone through an important part of its movement. If capitulation has not ended, it has certainly gone through a solid part of it. The other question is, if we currently have realized losses at the level of "after the bear market" - then the question is at what stage the market is now? And what to do with the story about 4-year cycles.
Is the asset currently forming a base for a new bull market? Or has it not yet completed the old one? Or is this just the beginning of a bear market, where a realized loss of 4.5 billion $ will seem like child's play? As always, we tend to seek answers in the technical picture of the chart. But even in it, there is currently a "crossroads" and more data is needed.
