Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points, which met market expectations. However, a real information bomb exploded during Jerome Powell's press conference.
Here are the key takeaways that matter for the crypto market:
🔹 The US economy is stronger than expected. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been raised from 1.8% to 2.3%. The signal is clear: the Fed is no longer afraid of a recession or a 'hard landing'.
🔹 The labor market in focus. The unemployment forecast remains stable (4.4% until 2026). Powell emphasized: as long as there are no mass layoffs, inflation takes a back seat.
🔹 Hidden QE? The most interesting point: from December 12, the Fed will launch monthly purchases of short-term Treasury securities totaling about $40 billion. Formally, this is not QE, but in fact — an infusion of new liquidity into the financial system. This could have a positive long-term impact on the liquidity of all markets, including crypto.
🔹 Market reaction. The probability of a rate cut at the January meeting has fallen by more than 2% after Powell's speech. The market expects a pause.
What’s next?
Macroeconomic data is still incomplete due to the recent shutdown. Upcoming dates will be critical:
🔴 December 16: Updated data from the US labor market.
🔴 December 18: Consumer Price Index (CPI) – a key inflation indicator.
These reports could sharply change expectations regarding future Fed policy.
Additional trigger of the day: Oracle shares fell by 12% due to a weak report and debt load, dragging the entire AI sector down.
Stay alert, keep an eye on the data, and do your own research!
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