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🟥 Kalshi estimates the likelihood of a government shutdown in the United States on January 31, 2026, at 43%, the highest percentage since the 2025 crisis.
🟢 Goldman Sachs estimates the risks between 40–50%, while JPMorgan places it between 20–40% for the possibility of a shutdown in early 2026. Both firms indicate that a short shutdown would only slightly impact GDP, by about 0.1–0.2% per week, with most of this effect likely recovering later.
🟢 However, a prolonged standoff may be more damaging amid disagreements over the funding of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and federal spending.
