Gold Price Forecast: XAU Breaks Higher but $4,250 Still a Major Barrier

Gold (XAU/USD) is pushing toward the key $4,250 resistance, extending its recent bullish momentum after the Fed delivered a less hawkish-than-feared rate cut.

Why Gold Is Rallying

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%, but Powell’s cautious tone triggered a sharp drop in the US Dollar and Treasury yields.

Traders are now pricing in two more rate cuts in 2026, boosting non-yielding assets like Gold.

Fed comments about a slowing labor market added further support.

With the Fed event out of the way, markets now shift focus to upcoming Jobless Claims and next week’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

Technical Outlook

Gold is trading around $4,225, holding strong above its major moving averages.

Trend: Bullish across 21-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs.

RSI: ~62 — bullish but not overbought.

Key levels:

Resistance: $4,250 (psychological + 78.6% Fib)

Support: $4,158 (21-day SMA), then $4,106 (50-day SMA)

A sustained daily close above $4,250 could open the door to another run toward record highs near $4,380. Failure to break higher could trigger a pullback to short-term support zones.

Gold Market Sentiment

Gold continues to benefit from:

■Dollar weakness

■Expectations of more Fed easing

■Growing concerns about labor softness

■Safe-haven demand

If US data this week prints soft, bulls may finally force a breakout above the stubborn $4,250 ceiling.

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