#ZEC预测 $ZEC There is a possibility of a short-term impact of $500. The medium to long-term trend will depend on regulatory policies, ETF approvals, and the implementation of technology, while also facing considerable retracement risks. The following is a detailed forecast combining various factors:
1. Short-term trend (within weeks): Currently, ZEC is in a strong upward channel, with its price reaching $461.92 as of December 12. The derivatives market's open interest is rising, bullish bets are at a monthly high, and the daily RSI has broken above the neutral level of 50, with the MACD about to form a bullish crossover, indicating strong bullish signals from a technical perspective. If it can stabilize above $450 and break through the resistance level of $485, it is expected to challenge $500 by year-end. However, it should be noted that it is currently in a high-risk consolidation range of $435 - $442, and if it falls below the support level of $415, it may further drop to the range of $400 - $380.
2. Medium-term trend (within months): The core variables focus on the SEC roundtable meeting on December 15 and the Grayscale ZEC spot ETF approval. If the meeting recognizes ZEC's optional privacy mode and the ETF is successfully approved, it will attract significant institutional funds, pushing it towards higher historical resistance levels such as $527. Conversely, if the regulatory attitude is strict or the ETF approval is hindered, it may trigger a significant price retracement, even facing risks of dropping to the support level of $310, or even $295, which could lead to large-scale long liquidations. Additionally, the progress of the ZTarknet Layer2 and dynamic fee proposal will also impact its competitiveness in the privacy coin track, thereby influencing price trends.
3. Long-term trend (over 1 year): Optimistically, if the demand for privacy technology continues to grow, and the proportion of ZEC's shielded transactions steadily increases, while successfully expanding DeFi and other application scenarios through technological upgrades, combined with the trend of continuous institutional accumulation, it is expected to become a benchmark asset in the privacy coin track, with steady value growth. However, pessimistically, it not only has to face competition from similar privacy coins like Monero but also long-term pressure from tightening regulatory policies. If compliance issues arise leading to exchange delistings, or if privacy technology is cracked, its core value will be significantly weakened, potentially returning to a long-term downward trend.
