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#美联储降息 Federal Reserve rate cuts: bullish or bearish

- Expected rate cut: generally positive for risk assets (stock market, cryptocurrencies), gold, and non-US currencies; negative for the US dollar and US Treasury yields; if the rate cut is less than expected or hawkish, it may reverse and weaken.
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- Rate cut exceeding expectations (concerns about economic recession): short-term positive for the bond market and gold, but long-term may suppress the stock market and other risk assets due to recession expectations.
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- Latest situation as of December 2025: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, with the dot plot indicating only a 25 basis point cut in 2026-2027, the pace is slowing, and the market tends to fluctuate with limited bullishness.