【Boge Talks Trading】ETH Morning Strategy: Systematic Direction, Open Positions with Stop Loss
2024-12-12
1. Market logic
Overnight US stocks surged strongly driven by revised economic growth expectations, leading to a collective rebound in risk assets. Although ETH was affected by the correlation, it still faced resistance at 3260 (0.618 pressure level) this morning, continuing to decline, consistent with our previous prediction of 'reducing positions or hedging short at highs.'
The current macro backdrop is cautious, facing two major constraining factors at the end of the year:
1️⃣ Yen interest rate hike expectations (approximately one week later) → Risk aversion sentiment gradually intensifying
2️⃣ Institutional year-end liquidity tightening → Market activity continues to decline
Core conclusion: The market is highly likely to maintain a volatile downward trend until around New Year's Day, primarily adopting a bearish defensive approach.
