🏙️ Apt Real Estate Market Analysis Summary
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1. Market Background
Global housing prices have risen after the pandemic, but will slow down in 2024–2025 due to high interest rates. Demand in first-tier cities remains solid, while there is a clear differentiation in second and third-tier cities; the 'housing is for living, not for speculation' policy continues, and demand in the rental market is increasing.
2. Supply and Demand Situation
Supply: Rising costs of building materials and labor; land sales are becoming cautious, and some third and fourth-tier cities have excessive inventory.
Demand: Demand from first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade supports the market; investment demand is declining; young people are more inclined to rent.
3. Price Trends
Short-term: High interest rates suppress home buying demand, with transactions and prices stabilizing or slightly adjusting; rental prices remain resilient.
Medium to long-term: Development of urban agglomerations and resource scarcity in first-tier cities provide support for core area prices.
4. Policy Impact
Proactive Policies: Affordable housing, shared ownership housing, and standardization of rental housing.
Regulatory Policies: Purchase restrictions, loan limits, and increased transaction costs for second-hand homes impose limitations on investment demand.
5. Risks and Opportunities
Risks: High interest rates, economic uncertainty, and significant inventory pressure in some cities.
Opportunities: Core city properties maintain their value; long-term rentals, retirement, and student apartments have growth potential; green buildings and digitalization are trends.
6. Investment Suggestions
Self-occupancy: Focus on long-term value (transportation, school district, employment density) and be cautious with debt.
Investment: Choose areas with stable supply and demand, and population concentration, while paying attention to rental yield.
Institutions: Control costs, emphasize risk management, and layout urban agglomerations and special communities.
