BTC Trading Plan
Strong Support$84,000Short-term floor; aligns with 50% Fibonacci retracement and prior correction low from November 2025. Break below risks deeper drop to $80,000.
Near Support$88,000–$90,000Immediate buying zone; coincides with 20-day EMA (~$91,188) and recent lows. High-volume node here has held multiple tests.
Pivot/Current$91,500–$92,000Neutral equilibrium; current price action is range-bound here.
Near Resistance$93,400–$94,000First hurdle; upper Bollinger Band and 38.2% Fibonacci level. Failure to break signals continued consolidation.
Strong Resistance$100,000–$107,000Psychological barrier; 200-day EMA (~$91,058 but trending up) and prior highs. Break above could target $110,000.
Long (Buy) Setup:
Entry: $90,000–$91,000 (on bounce from support with RSI >30 and bullish MACD crossover).
Stop-Loss: $88,000 (below near support to limit downside ~2–3%).
Take-Profit (Exit): $94,000 (first resistance, partial exit at 50% position) and $100,000 (full exit on momentum to next barrier).
Rationale: Oversold conditions and potential double-bottom formation near $90K suggest ~5–10% upside if holiday liquidity improves.
Short (Sell) Setup:
Entry: $93,500 (on rejection at resistance with bearish evening star candle).
Stop-Loss: $95,000 (above resistance to cap risk ~1–2%).
Take-Profit (Exit): $88,000 (near support, partial) and $84,000 (full on breakdown).
Rationale: Bearish trend channel breach and falling RSI indicate ~5–8% downside if year-end deleveraging persists.
Time Frame Analysis
Short-Term (1H–4H Charts, Next 1–3 Days): Bearish bias with high volatility (ATR ~$562). Expect choppy action around $90K–$94K as traders position for FOMC echoes and ETF flows. Probability of downside test: 60%.
Medium-Term (Daily/Weekly, End of December 2025): Neutral to bullish tilt, targeting $100K–$111K if supports hold. Predictions average $101,000–$111,500 by month-end, driven by institutional inflows and supply scarcity (post-halving effects lingering). Downside risk to $80K if global risk-off sentiment.
