BREAKING: Markets Now Betting Bitcoin Will Fail to Hit $100,000 Before Year-End — Are Analysts Wrong Again?

A surprising shift is shaking the crypto market: prediction platforms now overwhelmingly believe Bitcoin (BTC) will NOT reach $100,000 before 2025 ends, despite months of bullish expectations. After the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut, market momentum has cooled sharply, and traders are adjusting their bets.

Only 30% Odds BTC Breaks $100K Before New Year

Data from prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi shows traders assigning just a 29–34% chance that BTC will climb above $100,000 by December 31. Bitcoin’s monthly high currently sits at $94,600, and the asset hasn’t traded above six digits since November 13.

Macro uncertainty, slowing institutional demand, and cooling ETF inflows are all weighing on sentiment. Capriole Investments reports that corporate Bitcoin purchases have declined steadily, suggesting large players are becoming more cautious.

Even so, Polymarket traders assign a 65% probability that Strategy will continue its routine BTC buys this week after boosting holdings to 660,624 BTC last week with a $962M purchase.

Price Could Be Capped at $98,000

Coinphoton data shows BTC forming an ascending triangle on lower timeframes.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades notes Bitcoin is repeatedly attacking the resistance band between $93,300–$94,000. A breakout could target the triangle’s technical level around $108,000.

However, he warns the rally may stall early:

“$98,000 remains a major liquidity cluster and a likely rejection zone.”

Coinphoton adds that a decisive move above $94,589 is needed for BTC to test the $98,000–$100,000 region again.

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