Brothers,
Today's macro news is a bit absurd:
**The Federal Reserve announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds.**
Far exceeding market expectations.**
You may not know what this means.
Because the impact of this matter is more direct than interest rate cuts, employment data, or CPI.
In summary:
"Liquidity is coming back early, the risk asset cycle is being pulled forward."
Wall Street was directly stunned by this number,
Major investment banks are forced to readjust their forecasts for the scale of debt issuance, financing pressure, and interest rate trends in 2026.
Bro, this level of sudden shift,
Generally, there is only one situation:
The Fed can't hold on anymore, it must provide liquidity in advance.
And every time the Fed 'can't hold on',
The crypto market will be the first to explode.
**I. Why did the Fed suddenly buy 40 billion?**
Because the financing pressure on U.S. Treasury has become unbearable**.
Look at some hard facts:
In October and November, the short-end financing pressure in the U.S. is overwhelming.
Money market funds are squeezing government bonds.
Banking system reserves are nearing the warning line.
The Treasury's short-term debt issuance is overly reliant on auctions.
Government bond demand is weak → Costs soar.
SOFR and federal funds spread have been squeezed to the limit.
The Fed's actions are equivalent to saying:
"The Treasury is about to cave in, I have to step in."
And this kind of 'safety net behavior' is:
Invisible QE.
Liquidity is flowing back.
Risk appetite is rapidly recovering.
Bond yields are falling.
Cost reduction → Technology and crypto assets will benefit immediately.
What you are seeing now is not a one-time operation,
is a signal of a cycle reversal.
**II. Why did Wall Street collectively revise its 2026 forecast?**
Because this is not 'normal bond buying', but a structural shift**.
Barclays directly revised its forecast:
→ The Fed is expected to buy 525 billion in U.S. Treasuries in 2026.
(The original forecast was only 345 billion.)
J.P. Morgan, TD Securities, and Bank of America share the same view:
→ The Fed will absorb more debt.
→ The pace of purchases will be maintained for a longer time.
→ This is structural demand, not a temporary emergency.
What does it mean?
Bro, let me translate for you:
The Fed's era of 'balance sheet reduction' has ended.
Although they won't call it QE publicly,
But this is the function of QE.
And who are the biggest beneficiaries of QE?
Not real estate,
Not bonds,
Not banks,
But rather—
Risk assets (technology + crypto).
Especially in the crypto market, which is most sensitive to liquidity.
**III. The short-term market has already told you the answer through prices:**
"Pressure is relieved, funds are back."**
Look at today's micro indicators:
Swap spreads suddenly widened significantly.
SOFR-FF spread improvement.
Short-end funding prices are falling.
The trading volume of futures contracts has exploded.
Market volatility is falling.
Debt maturity pressure is easing.
The meaning of these indicators is only one:
The 'tightness of interest rates' that has constrained the market for the past two months has been loosened.
Think about it:
→ Interest rates are falling.
→ Borrowing costs are falling.
→ Leverage funds are active.
→ Technology and crypto become the first shockwave.
This is why:
BTC clearly has ETF outflows but doesn't fall.
ETH stabilizes at 3150–3200.
SOL fund flow is overwhelming.
Whales have been buying BTC for three consecutive days.
"1011" "OG" two major whales opened more than 560 million long positions.
Because what they see is not the news,
Liquidity is reversing.
IV. For the crypto circle, this news has three layers of lethality.
① BTC pricing model needs to be recalculated.
When the Fed starts buying bonds,
Global liquidity is entering the 'pre-loosening' phase.
BTC's anchor point is from:
→ Macroeconomic tightening cycle.
Turned into
→ Macroeconomic loosening cycle.
This means:
The valuation cap of BTC will be pushed up one level.
② ETH has the highest sensitivity to interest rates, this time it will become the biggest beneficiary.
Why?
ETH is the 'risk premium asset' of on-chain funds.
ETH/BTC has been flat for 40 days without falling.
L2 transaction fees → Mainnet burning.
ETF has shifted from net outflows to moderation.
Wall Street consensus is strengthening ETH (see Yi Li Hua's viewpoint).
Monetary easing → ETH is bullish → funds rotate from BTC.
This is ironclad logic.
③ The altcoin market is about to welcome a 'liquidity rebound window'.
Why has the altcoin market been weak in the past 30 days?
Because short-end interest rates are pressing.
Now:
Interest rate expectations are falling.
Leverage costs are falling.
Risk appetite is rising.
Meme, AI, and the Solana ecosystem are regaining momentum.
The meme sector has even started in advance (Haqimi etc.).
V. My summary in one sentence:
Bro, you must remember:
**BTC's bull market will not start from a technical breakthrough,**
But it starts from the Fed's 'not wanting to let the debt explode'.**
And today's actions by the Fed are:
"I can't hold on to the debt explosion, I must buy."
This is not called QE,
But its market effect = QE.
This is why whales have been desperately going long yesterday, the day before, and today:
What they see is that the liquidity reversal window has opened ahead of time.
What you see is still just the headline,
What they see is the market shape for the next 6 months.
💬
Brothers:
Do you think this wave of invisible QE from the Fed will directly push BTC above 100,000?
Will they push ETH first? $BTC
