12.12
ETH
1. Macroeconomics and Funding: After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts take effect, the market has realized profits leading to a pullback, but ETH ETFs continue to see inflows from institutional investors, with whales continuously increasing their holdings. The 3200 level serves as a strong support and is seen as the institutional accumulation cost line. The CFTC's tokenized collateral pilot provides compliance endorsement, ensuring medium to long-term liquidity.
2. Technical Analysis: The daily MACD has formed a golden cross, but the red bars are narrowing. The 4-hour chart shows a dead cross on lower volume, and the 1-hour chart has rebounded after touching the lower Bollinger Band. Currently, it is in the 3150-3300 oscillation range, with 3260 serving as a short-term bull-bear dividing line (corresponding to the SAR indicator's reversal point).
3. Sentiment and Events: The long-short ratio of 1.055 indicates bullish sentiment, but a $112 million capital outflow shows short-term caution. There are no major data releases in the afternoon, and volatility is likely to be limited by range-bound trading.
II. Trend Qualitative Analysis
Short-term oscillation is biased stronger, with no clear unilateral trend: Resistance levels above 3270-3300 (intraday highs + previous platform) are clearly restricting, while support levels below 3150-3175 (50-day moving average + dense on-chain positions) are solid. The current price is at the midpoint of the range, lacking breakout volume, and is likely to maintain narrow oscillation and consolidation in the afternoon.
III. Practical Targets (Practical Guidance + Manageable Risks)
1. Bullish Strategy: Enter a light long position in the 3220-3230 range on a pullback, with a stop loss at 3190 (below the institutional cost line), targeting 3270-3280 (first resistance level). If the target is not reached by 17:30, proactively take profits and exit.
2. Bearish Strategy: Enter a light short position in the 3270-3280 range on a rebound, with a stop loss at 3300 (breakout of intraday resistance), targeting 3230-3220 (midpoint of the range) $ETH
