There are too many retail investors in the crypto world who fall for floating profits, and my friend's experience still makes me sigh.
At the end of 2022, he invested 100,000 to buy the dip at $BTC , with a cost of 17,000. By March 2024, BTC had surged to 73,000, and his account skyrocketed to 430,000.
I advised him to take some profits, but he was determined to wait for 100,000 USD, stubbornly holding a full position.
In August, BTC retraced to 49,000, and his account shrank to 290,000, yet he clung to fantasies of a rebound; in November, BTC unexpectedly broke 100,000, peaking his account at 590,000, and he raised his target to 150,000 USD.
As a result, it has now retraced to 91,000, leaving only 530,000 in his account. In such ups and downs, the profits that should have been secured slipped away.
The core problem is just holding a full position—this is not aggressive at all; it’s akin to running naked in a gamble. Retail investors' so-called 'full position' often means 100% exposure, even leveraging to hold on; but institutions, even when claiming 'full position,' will reserve 30% cash to deal with volatility, and the difference lies in position management.
I have summarized three highly practical rules that I have personally tested and found effective:
First is the 333 rule for building positions at the bottom: enter in three batches, investing 1/3 each time. When I bought BTC at the bottom in 2022, I divided 150,000 into three purchases: 17,000 to build a position of 50,000, added another 50,000 when it dropped to 16,200, and when it rose back to 17,500, I added another 50,000, with an average cost of 16,900. Buying in batches not only helps to average down the cost but also gives confidence to buy more when it drops and keeps one calm when it rises.
Second is the 721 rule for position management: hold 70% of the base position long-term, use 20% for swing trading to reduce costs, and keep 10% as cash reserves. Having cash on hand means that a crash is an opportunity to add to positions; being fully invested means only passively enduring volatility.
Third is the 251 rule for profit-taking management: when it doubles, sell 20% to recover the cost, when it increases fivefold, sell 50% to lock in profits, and when it increases tenfold, liquidate the entire position.
With less capital, learning to operate in batches is even more essential; if you’re already fully invested, you can wait for a 10%-15% increase to sell 20%, then buy back after a retracement, gradually adjusting your position. These rules are not difficult; the challenge lies in resisting greed. Keep 333, 721, and 251 posted next to your computer as a constant reminder: position management is not about earning less, but about surviving. In this market, being alive is the only way to have a chance to make big money.
Investment has never been a solitary endeavor; I have paved the path of practical experience here. Do you want to walk steadily together? @juice13
