This afternoon, private messages piled up, all asking the same question: 'BTC broke below 91,000, is the bull not finished yet, or has the bear already entered?' $BTC

I can't answer that directly, but Old K in the community just paid a painful tuition with real money. #加密市场反弹

In mid-November, Old K heavily invested in Layer 2 leader ARB, when BTC was hovering around 98,000. ARB surged 32% in three days fueled by compliance narratives, and he confidently said, 'The Genius Act is implemented, this is the next hundredfold coin.'

As a result, on November 20, BTC was suddenly dumped by whales, plummeting from 96,000 to 87,000, and ARB followed with an 18% pullback. The funds he used to buy the dip had just entered the market when a small exchange's exit triggered panic, dropping another 9%. Now he is stuck and unable to move.

As of December 12 at 3 PM, BTC's current price is 90,850 USD, down over 5% from the November peak. However, during that sharp drop on November 20, the total leverage liquidation across the network exceeded 800 million USD in 24 hours, with 220,000 people getting liquidated, and many retail investors' rebound earnings were wiped out overnight. #加密市场观察

This scene of 'sharp rises enticing buyers, sharp drops trapping them' is too familiar—just like in 2021, where small coins surged erratically, only to be buried by a big bearish candle. Now the retracement trajectory of meme coins and newly launched public chains is eerily similar.

The technicals are more tangled; BTC just lost the EMA 15-day moving average (about 91,000 USD) and is currently struggling around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 89,900 USD. The next strong support is at the 85,500 USD level.

Although the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates recently, they clearly stated that 'high rates will be maintained until inflation steadily declines.' Market liquidity continues to tighten, and the previously anticipated 'Christmas rally' now looks more like a 'Christmas trap.'

I reviewed three rounds of halving cycle data; each time after a halving, the window for bull-bear switching is 18-20 months. We are currently exactly at this node.

Don't be blinded by the short-term benefits brought about by the 'Genius Act.' The other side of regulatory clarity is 'de-leveraging, de-bubbling.' The crypto circle has never had a 'soft landing.'

The law of extremes is ironclad; rather than guessing the bottom and buying the dip, it is better to control positions and closely monitor the 89,900 USD support level. A cautious wait-and-see approach is the best strategy.

Follow me for practical skills that can be implemented, see you in the Binance chat room.