Hello everyone, I am Bai Yue. Today, as soon as I opened my eyes, I saw Yi Lihua's long article passionately promoting Ethereum. When I looked at the market, ETH was still hovering around 3240. The news is buzzing, but the technical indicators are hinting to 'calm down'. What exactly is the market playing at? Let's clarify it in simple terms.
News: Three fires, burning really brightly
Yi Lihua's three points:
Wall Street big shots collectively stand up: even the SEC chairman says 'finance needs to go on-chain', and those economic big shots in the U.S. are pushing to issue U.S. bonds using blockchain, while Ethereum is the 'highway' they have their eyes on.
The upgrade effect is strong: after the Fusaka upgrade, L2 is very active, and the ETH burned every day exceeds 1500, accounting for 98%! This is equivalent to destroying ETH daily; with less available, it's naturally a good thing in the long run.
The washout is almost done: the leverage ratio has dropped to historical lows, and the ETH inventory on exchanges is also low, indicating that the weak hands have been cut, leaving mostly strong holders, which weakens the selling power.
In simple terms, big players calling shots + accelerated deflation + a clean market, the news is indeed biased towards bullish, especially the narrative of 'U.S. debt on-chain'; once substantiated, it will be a long-term positive.
Technical analysis: the signals from the 1-hour chart indicate caution.
Looking again at that 1-hour chart, it has a lot of information:
The price is around 3246, with recent resistance at 3300, and above that around 3380. The support below is first seen at 3100, with strong support around 2977.
The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, with the price clinging to the upper band; the short-term trend is still bullish.
But the MACD red bars are shortening, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening, with a risk of pullback.
The trend is still upward, but in the short term, it may need to pause before jumping; directly rushing to 3300 will be a bit challenging.
My view: the good news is real, but don't rush to go ALL IN.
The news is lively; it's when big funds tell stories, but retail investors are most likely to chase at emotional highs.
The current situation is: long-term stories are nice, but short-term indicators need to be digested.
Don't rush in just because you see 'soaring prices,' especially near such pressure points; the market often moves against emotional sentiment.
Operational suggestions (for reference only, risk is self-borne, operational suggestions are only half, come find me in a few days for the points).
If you already hold positions: set a mobile stop-loss, for example, if it breaks below 3100, reduce a portion to protect profits.
If you want to keep up: don't chase around 3240, wait for a pullback to the 3100–3150 range to consider in batches.
If you're conservative: just watch, waiting for the price to truly break through 3300 and stabilize.
What should retail investors do?
Remember two phrases: "Don't chase high on good news, wait for the pullback to see support."
No matter how exciting the news is, it ultimately depends on whether the price responds. Don't let FOMO emotions take you away; having a plan and discipline is essential to survive in the market.
The market always has opportunities; the key is to operate calmly. Baiyue will continue to monitor on-chain dynamics for everyone, moving steadily forward together! Follow Baiyue and participate in every attack by the Baiyue villagers! Baiyue will announce specific entry times and real-time news in the village every day!
