ETH suddenly surged by 5%, and many friends have been asking in the background whether it is about to take off. In fact, this is not a coincidence, but rather the result of two major favorable developments: first, the new SEC chair has clearly stated that ETH is a 'digital commodity', eliminating doubts about its securitization; second, after the Pectra upgrade in May, the staking efficiency of ETH has improved, and Layer 2 costs have significantly decreased. As an analyst heavily invested in ETH and its ecosystem, I will break down the logic behind ETH's rise today and discuss which ecological projects are worth investing in.
First, let's look at the favorable regulatory environment. The U.S. (CLARITY Act) has clarified the compliance status of ETH, and the (GENIUS Act) has established a regulatory framework for stablecoins. These two major acts have encouraged institutions to enter the market. In July of this year, the net inflow for spot ETH ETFs reached $14.57 million in a single day, totaling over $2.66 billion. BlackRock's ETHA fund is leading the market. It's important to note that institutional funds are the core drivers of long-term asset appreciation. Bitcoin's ability to break the $100,000 mark is due to the incremental funds brought by ETFs. As the leader in smart contracts, the demand from institutions for ETH will only continue to grow.
Technical upgrades are the core competitiveness of ETH. The Pectra upgrade launched in May doubled the blob capacity, improved verification efficiency, and raised the staking cap from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, attracting a large amount of institutional staking. Currently, 28% of ETH has been staked, with protocols like Lido and Ether.Fi being the biggest beneficiaries. The upcoming Fusaka upgrade will optimize the PeerDAS functionality, further consolidating ETH's core position. The ecological explosion brought by technical advantages is the fundamental driving force behind ETH's rise.
Layer 2 is the most worthwhile track to lay out in the ETH ecosystem. After the Dencun upgrade, Layer 2 transaction costs have decreased by 80%, and the daily trading volume of Arbitrum and Optimism has surpassed tens of millions, with TVL exceeding 30 billion USD. I currently hold large positions in ARB, OP, and GMX, where ARB and OP are the native tokens of leading Layer 2s, and GMX is a decentralized derivatives platform that has increased by 20% this year. DeFi blue chips like Uniswap and Aave are also migrating to Layer 2, which will further drive the value of Layer 2 tokens.
Many people ask me about the year-end target price for ETH. My judgment is that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and the spot ETF approval is granted, ETH is expected to reach 8000-10000 USD by the end of the year. But be aware of the risks; 3000 USD is a critical support level, and if it breaks, stop-loss should be applied promptly. My own strategy is to hold 50% of my position in ETH spot, 30% in Layer 2 tokens, and 20% in liquid staking protocol tokens (like LDO).
Here is a standard for selecting ecological targets for everyone:
First, the project is in the top 3 market share in the ETH ecosystem;
Second, the team has a clear profit model;
Third, there have been significant upgrades or collaborations recently.
Follow me@链上标哥 , so you won't get lost! Remember, in crypto investment, the profit comes from cognitive differences. By laying out early and upgrading the track, you can reap the biggest dividends.
