Trump may indeed change the West

Trump's significant changes are mainly reflected in two aspects: strategic contraction and confrontation with Europe. Trump wants strategic contraction, focusing on the Western Hemisphere. There is no doubt that this is a good thing for China. For decades, the United States has been keen on creating trouble around China, from the Korean Peninsula to the East China Sea, to the South China Sea, to the Indochina Peninsula, to South Asia, all messy. But it has never succeeded. Now Trump says that the United States does not want to create trouble in the Eastern Hemisphere anymore, and the surrounding area of China will be a bit calmer. So will the United States really strategically contract? This question is by no means simple. The strategic layout of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region is basically aimed at China. Can the United States easily give it up?

Let’s talk about Trump. Are his words reliable? Of course not. Today's Trump often contradicts yesterday's Trump. Tomorrow's Trump may also contradict today's Trump. So when Trump says to focus on the Western Hemisphere, it is very likely just to create a good atmosphere before his visit to China, which is conducive to negotiations with China. Of course, Trump may also be speaking the truth, that he indeed wants to focus on the Western Hemisphere. This could be a good thing for the United States. The current U.S. has a huge debt, a significant wealth gap, and a massive global layout that consumes a lot, resembling the British Empire before the First World War.

At that time, the British Empire was also globally laid out, but it was struggling against the newly rising Germany. In that situation, the British Empire chose to strangle Germany in all aspects, ultimately triggering two world wars. Today, China's rise is no less than that of Germany back then; China's size far exceeds that of Germany at that time, and it is no longer possible for the United States to strangle the rising China. If the United States continues with global layout and encirclement of China, the outcome may be even worse than that of the British Empire. If the British Empire had not tried to strangle Germany but had considered partial strategic contraction, it certainly would not have declined so quickly. The United States clearly understands that part of history. If Trump abandons global layout, he may avoid the fate of the British Empire. In this way, Trump could change the fate of the United States.

But is the matter of the United States decided solely by Trump? Of course not. Even if Trump really wants to implement strategic contraction, he will be out of office in a few years. The Democrats and the leftists are still determined to pursue global hegemony. Human nature is greedy; without experiencing painful lessons, it won't easily give up anything. A country made up of a group of people is also greedy; hegemonism will not give up easily without suffering a heavy blow. If the Democrats come to power next time, the U.S. will still follow the old path of hegemonism. However, if Trump genuinely pursues strategic contraction, it is equivalent to planting a seed. When the next American politician similar to Trump comes onto the stage, he may revisit Trump's decisions. Why do we say Trump is changing the West? That is because Trump previously stated that 'European civilization may disappear.'

This is definitely not an alarmist statement. Because the current immigrants and Muslims have profoundly changed the population structure of Europe. Historical cities like London, Paris, Berlin, and Vienna, which gathered the achievements of European civilization, now have a decreasing proportion of local residents. Those incoming immigrants do not recognize European civilization. Will immigrants in London recognize the thoughts of Shakespeare, Darwin, Newton, Maxwell, or Adam Smith? Of course not; they only recognize bread, while they complain about why the laws are not enforced there. Will immigrants in Paris recognize the thoughts of Voltaire, Descartes, Lavoisier, Poincaré, Fermat, or Hugo?

Will they care about the great achievements of Louis XIV or Napoleon? Of course not; they only recognize bread, while they complain about why the laws are not enforced there. Other European cities are the same. Immigrants are not interested in Gauss, Einstein, Heisenberg, or Dirac's formulas, nor do they care about Kant or Marx's philosophies, and they are even less interested in Chopin, Beethoven, or Mozart. They only recognize bread and the laws. So when Trump says that European civilization may disappear, it indicates that the current leaders in Europe are very weak. But in reality, the countries in Europe facing a population crisis do not only refer to the EU but also include Russia. Although Russia has a strong Putin, the proportion of Muslim population in Russia has approached 20%, making it one of the highest in Europe.

Now, the countries in Europe with relatively healthy population structures are in Eastern Europe, like Poland, which are not traditionally dominant and are not very wealthy because immigrants do not go there. In fact, this viewpoint is often stated in the media, but Europe, due to political correctness, does not pay attention to it. Now that it has come out of Trump's mouth, it is different. Trump is the President of the United States, the leading figure in the West. When it comes from his mouth, it will undoubtedly greatly boost the energy of the right-wing in the West. From this perspective, Trump may indeed change the social structure of the West. However, Western society has been peaceful for a long time, and changing it is by no means an easy task. But if Western society shifts to the right, it will inevitably stir up huge waves.

The first step in this process may be the disintegration of the EU. Because the EU is a product of leftist globalization, if it turns right as a whole, there will be no need for its existence. After the disintegration of the EU, Europe may experience two trends: one is that Russia chooses to join hands with major European countries to restore the traditional population structure. The other is that Russia chooses to expand its territory in Eastern Europe, restoring the traditional sphere of influence of the Tsarist Russia. No matter which situation occurs, it will cause Europe, which has been peaceful for a long time, to be turbulent again. Human history clearly writes that many times, reform is not a good thing; it often signifies turmoil or bloodshed.