$BTC

📈 Core Highlights

1. Price and Technical Stabilization:

· The price has rebounded from recent lows (around $89,000) and is currently trading above $92,000, with an increase of approximately 2.75% within 12 hours.

· The MACD histogram indicates potential bullish momentum. After a correction in short-term (4-hour level) indicators, bearish momentum is waning.

2. Marginal Improvement in the Macroeconomic Environment:

· Strengthened interest rate cut expectations: Following the Federal Reserve's recent "hawkish rate cut," the weak data on initial jobless claims in the U.S. has reinforced market expectations for further rate cuts in the future, providing support for risk assets.

· Easing liquidity pressure: The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on December 1, creating a favorable macro environment for asset recovery.

3. Strong Long-term Structural Support:

· Institutional Adoption Deepening: Companies plan to continue purchasing Bitcoin in Q4 2025, with giants like Fidelity and BlackRock incorporating Bitcoin spot ETFs into retirement plans, opening long-term funding channels.

· Layer2 Ecosystem Innovation: Second-layer solutions represented by "Bitcoin Hyper" (such as Babylon, BOB, etc.) are rapidly developing, aiming to enhance transaction speed and application integration, which could significantly improve BTC's utility value and valuation.

⚠️ Please Note Risks

1. High Short-term Market Vulnerability:

· High Leverage and Liquidation Risks: Recently, over $310 million in long positions were liquidated, indicating high market leverage, susceptible to rapid price declines due to forced liquidations.

· Cautious Sentiment and Low Participation: Year-end market liquidity is drying up, and traders are more focused on maintaining trend structure rather than chasing the rise. The fear index has dropped to a year-low.

2. Price Resistance and Correction Risks:

· Key Resistance Above: The price faces short-term technical resistance at $93,000 and $94,000. Recent rebounds have not confirmed a trend reversal, and the market "has not emerged from difficulties."

· Macroeconomic Uncertainty: The Federal Reserve has sent mixed signals regarding the future rate cut path, and the market still needs to digest the impact of recent hawkish statements, which may limit the upside potential for risk assets.

Feel free to follow me for more real-time updates and in-depth analysis.