Today, I want to take you into a dimension that most beginners have never noticed. In this market, your fear, greed, anxiety, and even that hint of luck are not secrets, but are meticulously mapped out and represented in real-time trading emotional candlesticks. You think you are 'analyzing the market', but in reality, you are more like a mouse in a transparent maze, every hesitation, every rapid heartbeat is clearly visible to the observers outside.
When I first started in the industry, I also paid a hefty 'emotional tax'. The most memorable time was one late night when I was staring at a small coin that was glowing from being 'nurtured' by the community, its price soaring in a straight line, and the chat box was filled with 'take off' and 'pattern'. In a surge of excitement, I jumped in with all my capital. Then, as if someone had timed it, the price suddenly 'plummeted', a needle piercing straight down. I slumped in my chair, with only one absurd thought left in my mind: 'Did they see me buy in?'
Later I understood, what they saw was not me, but thousands of 'me' like myself. We collectively form a battlefield map called 'market sentiment.' If you want to survive, the first lesson to learn is not to look at the candlestick chart, but to understand this map about yourself.
Act One: Good News, Price Rises, and the Classic Three-Act Play of 'Storytelling.'
Almost all newcomers will be harvested by the same play; the script never changes:
Act One: Building the 'Sacred Narrative'
When a project announces a 'major partnership', 'revolutionary mainnet upgrade', or 'compliance license from a certain country', the community and media start to heat up, and the story sounds flawless and logically coherent. At this point, you are the audience, and you think the play is really good.
Act Two: Ignite the 'Fire of Greed'
As news ferments, prices begin to rise gently, then accelerate. The community produces screenshots claiming to 'know the insider information in advance', and the candlestick chart forms a beautiful arc bottom. FOMO (fear of missing out) spreads like a virus. At this moment, you stand up from the audience, feeling that you have figured out the trick.
Act Three: Complete the 'Chip Replacement'.
Before and after the moment when news is officially announced or expectations are met, prices often do not continue to soar but instead face massive sell-offs. Why? Because all good news is to exchange liquidity, using a beautiful future story to take away your real, valuable stablecoins or bitcoins. The story has been told, it's time to take a bow. At this point, you bought a ticket to the stage, only to find that the show has ended, and you have become a prop.
My perspective: I never buy based on 'what is going to happen'; I only observe 'what is happening.' When a narrative is already well-known and the price has significantly reacted, this is usually not the starting point but the midpoint or even the endpoint. The real alpha (excess returns) is hidden in the silence before the birth of the narrative.
Act Two: The candlestick is the dialogue, and on-chain data is the backstage script.
The candlestick chart is a public screen that everyone can see. But did you know? The director and the lead actors are backstage (on-chain), and their rehearsals and positioning are key.
Key Insight One: See through 'false breakouts' and 'true spikes.'
False breakout: The price breaks through a key resistance level, but the on-chain whale addresses continue to recharge the exchanges. This is a typical 'show of strength' to unload. The breakout is false, finding someone to take over is real.
True spike: The market suddenly crashes, creating a long lower shadow, causing extreme panic. But if you notice that at the lowest point, a large amount of stablecoins were exchanged for assets, and these assets did not flow back to exchanges but entered cold wallets, this could likely be smart money bottom-fishing after a 'panic test.' A spike is violent wash trading, not the end of a trend.
Key Insight Two: Listen to 'the market's breath', net flow of exchanges.
This is the data I must check every day:
Continued net inflow increases: A large amount of assets entering exchanges indicates that holders may be preparing to sell. This is a signal of 'potential supply increase.'
Continued net outflow increases: Assets are being withdrawn from exchanges into private wallets. This is a signal of 'potential supply decrease, long-term accumulation,' which is usually healthier.
Prices can lie, but the on-chain flow of real money is more honest.
Act Three: In 'Collective Hysteria', Maintain 'Strategic Dullness'.
The crypto community is the best reverse indicator of emotion. When it transforms from a forum discussing technology into a party full of calls for trades, profit and loss displays, and mysterious codes, danger is near.
My counter-trade mindset:
When the community starts to find reasons for 'price fluctuations': when the price rises because 'a big shot called for it', and falls because 'Wall Street is making trouble'. This is when the market has entered an emotion-driven phase, reason fails, and I will reduce my position.
When the 'silent majority' begins to speak: those in your community who have been silent for two years suddenly start asking 'how to buy this coin'. This is a strong signal that the market is nearing its end.
Cultivate 'counter-instinctive reactions': When you feel the suffocating FOMO of 'if I don't buy now, it will be too late', wait. Force yourself to wait 24 hours. When you feel the despair of 'it's all over', look at the data. Go check on-chain data, not the community's cries of despair.
Final Act: Become an 'Observer', not an 'Actor'.
After these years, I set three 'theater survival rules' for myself:
Rule One: Only earn money from 'cognitive arbitrage', not from 'emotional gambling.'
I will only bet on assets that I have deeply researched and can understand their value logic. For those 'hot spots' purely driven by emotion and narrative, I either completely avoid them or only use an 'entertainment budget' to experience them; if I lose, I'll just consider it as buying a front-row ticket to the show.
Rule Two: Your position is the 'shock absorber' of your emotions.
Never let yourself fall into a situation where you 'must win.' Holding a significant or even full position in a single asset ties your emotions to its candlestick chart, making you the most engaged and easily manipulated actor on stage. Diversify your positions and keep cash, so you can sit in the audience and calmly appreciate (or analyze) the performance.
Rule Three: Ally with Time, Dance with Volatility
I have given up the myth of 'precisely buying the bottom and escaping the top.' I adopt a strategy of 'core positions + tactical positions.' Core positions (like Bitcoin) are regularly arranged and held long-term, ignoring short-term plots. Tactical positions are only operated on a small scale based on 'backstage clues' provided by on-chain data when extreme emotions (extreme greed or fear) appear in the market. I do not predict every act but strive to understand the direction of the entire play.
The cruel truth of this market is that it is always profiting from human nature. But the most interesting paradox lies here: once you soberly realize that you are being 'designed,' and begin to observe the emotions of other participants, you transform from 'prey' to 'observer.'
I am no longer afraid of crashes, nor do I fervently chase rises. Because I know that a surge is an invitation from liquidity, and a crash is a pressure test of value. My task is not to predict the next line of dialogue from the main character but to understand the deep rules of this never-ending drama.
If you are also tired of being led by your emotions and want to transition from being a 'puppet on stage' to a 'drama critic in the audience,' feel free to follow me. Here, there are no 'wealth codes,' only a calm deconstruction of the logic of market behavior.
Remember, in this theater, those who can leave with a smile are never the ones who got the deepest into the play.
#加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH
