Today, while watching the market, I found BCH to be interesting. The one-hour chart is clearly still falling, but the MACD has quietly 'golden crossed' - is this to lure in more buyers or a real rebound? Don't rush, I'll help you break it down layer by layer.
First, look at the key level above 607 as the first resistance, 630 as strong resistance; below 583 is the bulls-bears dividing line, if it breaks, then watch 565, even 550. Although the market is still in a downward channel today, pay attention to a detail: the yellow-white line has already been steadily climbing above the 0 axis, which is a signal of short-term momentum reversal. But don't rush to shout 'the bull market is here,' because - the volume has not continued to expand, and the RSI is still hovering near the overbought area, what does this indicate? The upward movement is likely just a false move.
Now let's look at the liquidation data:
In the last 24 hours, short positions exploded by 450,000 USD, while long positions only reached 40,000. With so many shorts being buried, the market hasn't really taken off; doesn't it feel a bit like 'it should rise but doesn't'? Here, I want to point out something many people haven't noticed: a lot of liquidations ≠ immediate rise; it may instead mean that the main force is cleaning out the opposing positions, and there might be another wave of decline ahead.
What should players do:
In the short term, look for a fluctuation in the 583-565 range. If it stabilizes at 583, you can take a small position for a rebound, but be sure to reduce your position or exit near 607. If it breaks below 565 directly, don't try to catch the bottom; the next observation point is around 550. Remember, the initial stage of a MACD golden cross is often a period of fluctuation, not a charging phase.
Currently, my view is very clear: BCH is still bearish in the medium term, but there is a short-term need for a rebound. If it first surges to around 607 today, that’s an opportunity for shorts; if it first drops to the 565-550 range, you can gradually buy a bit for a rebound. But make sure to keep your position light and always have a stop-loss.
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