The most genuine lie in the crypto world is: “This time it’s different.” But the truth is, behind every real market trend, the main players are silently paving the way.
After my friend got liquidated, he said something that left a deep impression on me: “In the crypto world, you will never make money outside the main players' understanding.” Think about it, how many people have experienced this—seeing a certain coin suddenly trending, feeling FOMO to the point of racing heart, and impulsively jumping in? As a result, it went up for three days, down for five days, and in the end, you realize the excitement was for others, but the losses are yours.
Such scenes keep repeating. Today, let's not talk about metaphysics, but rather two hardcore rules I've observed over the past six years. If you have ever been fooled by the “excitement,” the following may help you remain calmer and less impulsive the next time you make a move.
Rule One: If there are no 'quiet accumulators' among the major players, don't talk about any big market movements.
Truly large-scale funds never make a fuss when entering the market. They often accumulate quietly during long periods of sideways movement, with trading volume gradually increasing, but the price is suppressed within a specific range—just like a beach ball pressed underwater; the deeper it's pressed, the higher it will bounce back later.
The core signal of major players accumulating is 'increased volatility'—the price repeatedly oscillates within a range, with trading volume intermittently increasing but the price not significantly breaking through. This is a typical feature where major players dilute costs and absorb retail investors' chips through 'buying high and selling low'.
When major players have collected enough chips, the real signal to start is 'volume breakout'. For example, when ETH broke through the key resistance of $2000 in November 2023, the daily trading volume increased by 52% compared to the average of the past 30 days, subsequently initiating a two-month trend upward. This is a typical movement of major funds actively raising prices after completing their positions.
The most commonly used trap by major players is 'fooling the bulls and bears'. They often create the illusion of a breakout with increased volume at the upper edge of a volatile range, attracting retail investors to chase up before quickly dumping; or they deliberately drop prices at the lower edge of the range to trigger panic selling and then swiftly reclaim lost ground to complete the washout.
The key to judging true and false breakouts is the 'confirmation signal': a genuine breakout requires no retracement to the breakout level within 24 hours and sustained trading volume; while a purely technical breakdown with shrinking volume is likely a bear trap.
Rule Two: Community popularity is not 'manufactured', but 'utilized'.
I've seen too many projects where the white paper reads like a sci-fi novel, but after launch, the community is as cold as a morgue. No matter how advanced the technology, if no one uses or talks about it, it will inevitably go to zero.
True heat is not a few hundred 'Moon' messages in a Telegram group, but users spontaneously discussing application scenarios, sharing experiences, and even arguing. Projects that can continually create topics are likely to attract liquidity continuously.
Why do some meme coins continue to thrive while most 'shitcoins' go to zero? The key lies in cultural recognition and community building. Projects like DOGE and SHIB have formed emotional resonance and strong community consensus by closely integrating with internet culture and popular elements. This consensus is not manufactured; it is based on real social interactions and value recognition.
The essence of coin price is a game of consensus, and consensus requires new participants to continuously 'take the story'. If the community can't even create new topics, it likely means the story is about to end.
An important indicator of community quality is whether users are creating content or just repeating slogans. High-quality communities will have in-depth discussions about applications, share usage experiences, and even constructive criticism, while low-quality communities only have mechanical calls.
Before the next FOMO, ask yourself two questions.
Is its bottom built by funds or blown up by news? Look at the changes in trading volume: when major players are truly laying out their positions, trading volume will increase gently but price fluctuations remain limited; while purely relying on news hype often leads to rapid increases in both price and volume, lacking sustainability.
Is its community creating topics, or merely repeating slogans? Take a closer look at the community: are users spontaneously discussing applications and experiences, or are they just mechanically spamming? True community vitality comes from active user participation and creation, not from one-way official promotion.
In the crypto world, you might make money by luck, but eventually, you'll lose it all due to skill. The ones who can continue to profit are always those who can understand the intentions of the major players and discern the authenticity of the community.
What major players pursue is not a single wave, but periodic harvesting. If we can understand their strategies, we can follow the trend of buying low and selling high during fluctuations and hold firmly during trends, ultimately earning money within our own cognitive range.
So, the next time you see a coin suddenly buzzing, don't rush to buy in. First, calmly analyze the underlying capital logic and community quality—this may help you avoid being 'cut' more than any technical indicator.
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