As we approach 2026, we must remember a harsh reality: no year in this decade has developed as people expected.

2020: The global pandemic rendered all forecasts obsolete in the first quarter.

2021: Inflation surged, leaving almost all institutions bewildered.

2022: The most intense interest rate hike cycle since the 1980s shattered the market.

2024: The S&P 500 rose over 20% for two consecutive years, something no one dared to predict.

2025: The 'Liberation Day Incident' triggered the largest fluctuations after the pandemic, with tariffs soaring... then one of the fastest rebounds in history.

So, the most unlikely thing in 2026 is the absence of surprises.

Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid created an 'unexpected map' — listing potential positive and negative events that could change the global direction in 2026.

1. Potential 'positive surprises'

1. The return of AI-driven super productivity, back to the 1990s. The last time the US quarterly economic growth maintained 4% consecutively was from 1996 to 2000. If AI capital expenditures continue to explode and productivity rises to 90s levels, global asset prices may be completely rewritten.

2. S&P 500 index rising to 8,000 points? In the past century, 40% of years saw an increase of over 15%.

3. The historical script after a soft landing: US stocks usually rise by about 50%. In each cycle of 'rate cuts without recession', US stocks average a 50% increase over two years, and we are currently right in the middle of this path.

4. The new Fed chair = uncertain, but not necessarily a risk; one person cannot change the overall direction. It is even possible that Powell continues to sit on the board to ensure policy independence.

5. Trump, in order to curb inflation and win the midterm elections: more tariff exemptions may be on the way.

6. US-China relations: from 'not going to explode' to 'might get a bit better'?

7. 2026 = the 'quietest' year in global politics (no major elections in G7), and the market will finally not have to change governments every year.

8. Europe may see 'underestimated good news'; the market severely underestimates the potential boost from German reforms, low positions, and fiscal stimulus. Once realized, European assets may reverse.

9. Oil prices may be further pressured (Trump needs low prices), and if the goal is to lower living costs for the midterm elections—there is motivation to keep oil prices low.

10. If a sudden ceasefire in the Middle East succeeds, the prediction market believes a short-term ceasefire is 'unlikely', but any progress could have significant impacts.

2. Potential 'negative shocks'

If the plot twists, it could be drastic:

1. The biggest black swan: the Fed's next step may not be rate cuts, but rather... rate hikes? As long as there is a slight inflation rebound, rate hike expectations may return. If this happens, it will be a catastrophic narrative switch.

2. The Fed enters the 'storm era': the committee's unity has been very high in recent years, but 2026 may bring public division and policy chaos.

3. Inflation 'stickiness' may be far stronger than imagined: unless oil prices plummet, US inflation is likely to stubbornly remain above target.

4. This round of 'rapid rate cuts' has become a policy error: if proven too early, it may be forced to reverse rate hikes like in the 1960s.

5. AI data centers are exploding in energy consumption, and electricity prices have soared. Once the narrative of 'energy constraints' takes hold, global manufacturing and technology could be affected.

6. If this is 'the most obvious bubble in history': US stock valuations have reached the highest range in 150 years.

7. If Nvidia's profit expectations stagnate, the entire AI chain may be shaken.

8. The US economic cycle has reached the edge of average length: apparent prosperity, but the taste of the cycle's tail is becoming increasingly obvious.

9. Employment shocks caused by AI: small businesses struggle to hire, while large companies accelerate AI investments; 2026 may see an acceleration in layoffs.

10. If inflation expectations in Japan spiral out of control, the world's largest bond market could face a shock.

Every year could render all predictions invalid. Uncertainty itself is certainty.