luck萧
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Wake up, there will be no massive liquidity injection in 2026.
The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve has made it clear: there will be two rate cuts in 2026 and one in 2027, with normalization of interest rates not expected until 2028. This means that the long-anticipated expectation of a "massive liquidity injection" has basically fallen through, and the logic that the Federal Reserve will open the floodgates to support the market can be put aside for now.
More alarmingly, many people have misinterpreted the Federal Reserve's action of purchasing $400 billion in government bonds. This is not QE, but RMP (repurchase operations) — the purpose is not to inject liquidity into the market, but to “fill the holes” for the liquidity pressure in the banking system at the end of the year.
In simple terms, QE is about pouring water into the pool, QT is about drawing water out, while RMP is just temporarily scooping back the water that was spilled, which must be returned after use.
So, don’t get excited just because you see “purchase.” This is merely technical stabilization and definitely not a signal of a new round of easing. The real liquidity barometer will depend on whether SLR is relaxed, whether banks can expand their balance sheets, whether fiscal subsidies are provided, and whether ON RRP rules will be adjusted.
Next, focus on two key data points:
First, the non-farm payrolls to be released in December (especially since the November data may be weaker due to the government shutdown);
Second, the CPI for January next year — if inflation does not decline as expected after the October rate cut, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its tightening stance.
In summary: the current market environment is not optimistic; expecting a massive liquidity injection in 2026? At least based on the current path, this seems more like a wishful fantasy.
Understanding the essence of the policy is key to seeing the market direction. If you also want to know which signals to focus on next, feel free to chat at @luck萧 — we can sort out the logic together and face the real market expectations head-on.
#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹
The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve has made it clear: there will be two rate cuts in 2026 and one in 2027, with normalization of interest rates not expected until 2028. This means that the long-anticipated expectation of a "massive liquidity injection" has basically fallen through, and the logic that the Federal Reserve will open the floodgates to support the market can be put aside for now.
More alarmingly, many people have misinterpreted the Federal Reserve's action of purchasing $400 billion in government bonds. This is not QE, but RMP (repurchase operations) — the purpose is not to inject liquidity into the market, but to “fill the holes” for the liquidity pressure in the banking system at the end of the year.
In simple terms, QE is about pouring water into the pool, QT is about drawing water out, while RMP is just temporarily scooping back the water that was spilled, which must be returned after use.
So, don’t get excited just because you see “purchase.” This is merely technical stabilization and definitely not a signal of a new round of easing. The real liquidity barometer will depend on whether SLR is relaxed, whether banks can expand their balance sheets, whether fiscal subsidies are provided, and whether ON RRP rules will be adjusted.
Next, focus on two key data points:
First, the non-farm payrolls to be released in December (especially since the November data may be weaker due to the government shutdown);
Second, the CPI for January next year — if inflation does not decline as expected after the October rate cut, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its tightening stance.
In summary: the current market environment is not optimistic; expecting a massive liquidity injection in 2026? At least based on the current path, this seems more like a wishful fantasy.
Understanding the essence of the policy is key to seeing the market direction. If you also want to know which signals to focus on next, feel free to chat at @luck萧 — we can sort out the logic together and face the real market expectations head-on.
#美联储降息 #加密市场反弹
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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