1) 🔵Base scenario (most likely) — consolidation
Probability: 55–60%
BTC is currently in a large range, volumes are average, momentum is weak → most likely we will see movement in the corridor:
Range: $88,000 — $96,000
Bounces from $90K–$92K
Resistance at $94K–$96K
Without strong momentum, the market may remain 'flat'
This is the accumulation phase before the next movement.
2) 🟩Bullish scenario — break upwards
Probability: 25–30%
Conditions:
BTC holds $90K
Volumes are starting to rise
RSI returns to the 55+ zone
Then a possible movement:
Targets:
$96 500
$101 000–103 000
Next, with a strong impulse: $108 000 (key resistance)
Breaking above $108K opens the way to $115K+.
3) 🟥Correction scenario — fall down
Probability: 15–20%
The critical moment is the level:
$87 000 — a point that cannot be lost
If BTC breaks through it:
first stop: $84 000–85 000
deeper: $80 000–82 000
This will become a classic correction to previous buying zones.
📌 Key levels for the near future
Support
$92 000
$90 000
$88 000
$87 000 — the most important
Resistance
$94 000
$96 000
$101 000
$108 000 — a Rubicon for new growth
🧠 Summary
So far the market is weak, the impulse is unformed → consolidation is more likely than growth or a strong drop.
Explosive movement is possible only after breaking $96K or falling below $87K.
