The price of HBAR remains stable today after a rapid drop of nearly 29% over the past month, and has decreased by about 6% in the past week. Although the trend appears weak, the overall factors are becoming more complex. Retail demand has softened, yet large investors have significantly increased their purchases in the past two days.
The combination of weakening selling pressure and accumulation suggests that a new support base may form, even though the price direction still looks weak.
Weak demand but heavy accumulation?
HBAR continues to move within a falling wedge, which is generally considered a bullish structure because it shows that selling pressure is gradually weakening over time. However, within this wedge, weaker signals have appeared. Between December 7 and December 11, HBAR's price made higher lows while the On-Balance Volume (OBV) made lower lows.
Do you want more in-depth information about the coin? Subscribe to the Daily Crypto Newsletter from editor Harsh Notariya here.
OBV is a cumulative trading volume tool used to track the inflow and outflow of money in that coin. If the price makes higher lows but OBV decreases, it shows that buyers do not have enough strength to push the price back up, which becomes a bearish divergence signal within the upward pattern.
However, whales have shown different behavior. Accounts holding at least 10 million HBAR increased from 136.54 to 149.49, while accounts holding at least 100 million HBAR increased from 40.65 to 73.62. Just using this minimum amount means that whales have added over 3.42 billion HBAR in less than 48 hours, worth at least 445 million USD at current value.
OBV is used to track trading volume on exchanges. Therefore, transferring large amounts of coins off the market or OTC/deposit movements may not be reflected in OBV. For this reason, OBV is suitable for reflecting retail interest.
This contradiction has thus become the starting point for the next part, as whales may be responding to signals deeper than what is visible.
Repetitive signals indicate that whales may be watching.
Between October 17 and December 11, the price created new lower lows while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) created new higher lows. RSI measures the speed of buying and selling. When the price drops but RSI rises, a bullish divergence occurs according to standards, and this divergence is linked to a reversal of the trend.
Additionally, this same divergence has appeared before when prices bounced back, occurring on December 1 and December 7, with HBAR moving up 15% and 12% from the lows. Although those movements faced resistance, this time the divergence appears alongside significant accumulation of coins by whales, making this reversal attempt more crucial than any previous ones within this wedge.
If the resistance that hindered the previous recovery is broken, the divergence will change the main structure from bearish to bullish, which may be what whales are preparing for.
The most important support and resistance levels for HBAR.
HBAR's price needs to close daily above 0.159 USD, as this level has never been broken during previous rebounds. If the price breaks above this line, it will also break the upper trend line of the wedge and open the way to 0.198 USD and 0.219 USD.
However, if the price weakens again, 0.122 USD will be a key point to watch. If it falls below this, HBAR will return to the lower edge of the wedge, which is quite weak as there are only two points where the price has touched. If it breaks below this edge, it will slow the recovery and indicate that the sellers still control the overall trend.
Currently, OBV shows signs of still weak demand, while RSI reflects bullish signals. Whales accumulated about 3.42 billion HBAR at the lows. If HBAR can break 0.159 USD, whale accumulation will be an important driving force rather than just a background signal.
