The price of HBAR is stable today after a sharp monthly decline of about 29%. It is still down about 6% over the past week. The trend seems weak, but the deeper picture is more complex. The demand for retail is weak; however, the number of whales has significantly increased over the past two days.
This combination of weakness and accumulation suggests that a base may form, although price movement still appears weak.
Is weak demand meeting intense accumulation?
HBAR is still moving within a falling wedge. Typically, the wedge is a bullish structure as it shows that sellers are losing strength over time. But within that wedge, something weaker has emerged. Between December 7 and 11, the price of HBAR recorded a higher low while the On-Balance Volume (OBV) recorded a lower low.
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OBV is a cumulative volume tool that tracks whether money is flowing into or out of the token. When the price reaches a higher low but the clear price declines, buyers do not have enough strength to support the rebound. This creates a bearish divergence even within a bullish pattern.
As for the whales, they are behaving entirely differently. Accounts holding at least 10 million HBAR increased from 136.54 to 149.49. Accounts holding at least 100 million HBAR increased from 40.65 to 73.62. Using just the minimum, whales added about 3.42 billion HBAR in less than 48 hours. At the current price, this stock is worth at least $445 million.
OBV tracks trading volume on exchanges; large transfers outside of exchanges or off-exchange/custody movements may not show in OBV, so OBV may miss some popular activities and be a better representation of retail interests.
This contradiction paves the way for the next section, as whales are likely reacting to a deeper signal.
A recurring signal that whales may be watching.
Between October 17 and December 11, the price recorded a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded a higher low. The RSI measures the speed of buying and selling. When the price declines but the RSI rises, it forms a standard bullish divergence. This type of divergence is associated with trend reversals.
This same divergence appeared before previous bounces. On December 1 and 7, the pattern emerged, and HBAR moved 15%, 12% from its lows. Every move stopped at resistance, but this time the divergence appears alongside massive accumulation by whales. This combination makes the current reversal attempt more significant than previous ones within the wedge.
If the ceiling that halted previous surges breaks, the divergence could shift the broader structure from bearish to bullish. This might be what the whales are relying on.
Key price levels for HBAR
The price of HBAR needs to close daily above $0.159. This level has not been exceeded during previous bounces. Also, breaking above it breaks the upper trend line of the wedge and opens the way to move towards $0.198 and $0.219.
If the price weakens again, $0.122 is the line to watch. A drop below it sends HBAR back to the lower bound of the wedge. This line is weak because it has only two contact points. A breakout below delays any recovery and indicates that sellers are still in control of the broader trend.
Currently, the OBV indicator shows weak demand, and the RSI indicator shows a bullish setup, with whales adding around 3.42 billion HBAR at the bottom. If HBAR can surpass $0.159, the accumulation of whales becomes a significant tailwind instead of a background signal.
