The price of HBAR is stable today, despite the monthly decline of nearly 29%. Over the past week, the decline has accumulated to about 6%. The trend looks weak, but the deeper overall picture is more complex. The demand from retail investors is subdued, but the whales have significantly increased their holdings over the last two days.
This combination of weakness and accumulation suggests that a bottom may be forming, even though the price action still appears weak.
Weak demand meets strong accumulation?
HBAR is still moving in a descending wedge pattern. A wedge is typically a bullish structure as it shows sellers losing strength over time. However, within this wedge, something weaker is visible. Between December 7 – December 11, HBAR's price made a higher low while On-Balance Volume (OBV) made a lower low.
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OBV is a cumulative volume tool that tracks whether money is flowing into or out of the token. When the price makes a higher low but OBV declines, buyers do not have enough strength to support the rebound. This creates a bearish divergence even in a bullish structure.
Whales operate quite differently, however. Individuals with at least 10 million HBAR increased from 136.54 to 149.49. Wallets holding at least 100 million HBAR grew from 40.65 to 73.62. Using only the minimum levels, whales added about 3.42 billion HBAR in under 48 hours. At the current price, this pot is worth at least 445 million dollars.
OBV tracks exchanged volume in exchanges; large off-exchange transfers or OTC/custody transfers do not always show up in OBV. Therefore, OBV may miss some whale actions and reflect retail investors' interest better.
This divergence creates a foundation for the next section, as whales are likely to react to a deeper signal.
A recurring signal that whales may follow
Between October 17 – December 11, the price made a lower low while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) formed a higher low. RSI measures the speed of buying and selling. When the price declines and RSI rises, a classic bullish divergence forms. Such a divergence is associated with reversals.
The same divergence was also seen in previous rebounds. Both December 1 and December 7, the pattern repeated, and HBAR rose by 15% and 12% from the lows. Both rises stopped at resistance, but now the divergence occurs simultaneously with massive whale accumulation. This combination makes the current rebound attempt more significant than previous attempts in the wedge.
If previous upward stopping levels are broken, this divergence could change the broader structure from bearish to bullish. This may be the reason why whales are positioning themselves this way now.
Key HBAR price levels
The price of HBAR needs to close above $0.159. This level was not reached in previous rebounds. Breaking above it also violates the upper boundary of the wedge and opens the way for a rise towards $0.198 and $0.219.
If the price declines again, $0.122 is a key level to watch. A drop below it brings HBAR back to the lower boundary of the wedge. However, this level is weak as it has only been touched twice. A collapse below it would further delay the rebound and indicate that sellers still dominate the major trend.
Currently, OBV shows weak demand, RSI indicates a bullish setup, and whales have bought about 3.42 billion HBAR from the lows. If HBAR exceeds $0.159, whale accumulation becomes significant support, not just a backdrop.
