Bloomberg reported that President Trump's public admission that fear of "economic catastrophe" drove him to sign the interim memorandum of understanding with Iran is now undermining US negotiating leverage as the two sides prepare for talks in Switzerland. The MOU, signed Wednesday, reopened the Strait of Hormuz and triggered immediate sanctions waivers allowing Iran to resume oil exports — producing an oil price decline and a US equity rally that Trump cited at a press conference in Evian, France.

A Bloomberg Economics analysis of the 14-point agreement found that 10 provisions favor Iran, one favors the US, and three are neutral. Under the deal, Washington has committed to sanctions waivers for Iranian oil sales and opened the door to ending all sanctions programs, while Iran also stands to receive a $300 billion reconstruction development program. Iran's primary concession — a reaffirmation of its pledge never to pursue a nuclear weapon — mirrors a commitment it had already made under the 2015 accord. Complicating the outlook, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday, citing fresh Israel-Lebanon tensions, even before talks formally opened.

The 60-day negotiating window is explicitly "extendable," a provision Bloomberg Economics strategist Chris Kennedy and former Treasury sanctions official Miad Maleki both said benefits Tehran. "The US can still escalate militarily, but it has dismantled its economic leverage at the exact moment it needs it most," Maleki said. The war has drawn 56% disapproval among Americans and prompted the Republican-led House to vote to halt military operations, further constraining Washington's room to maneuver.