Brothers and sisters in the crypto world, I am Aping. I know, watching ETH drop from nearly 4000 to around 3050, my hands are itching, and that voice in my heart is shouting: 'It has dropped so much, should I buy the dip now?'
Hold on! Brew a cup of tea and let me chat for a moment. After looking at these charts, you might draw a completely opposite conclusion.
1. Daily Chart: It looks like it can't drop, but is it really a 'trap for the bulls'?
The daily chart indeed gives a false impression of 'slowing down in the decline'.
· Price: Repeatedly hovering around $3,055, it seems there is support.
· Indicator: RSI(6) is around 42, not extremely oversold; although MACD has a golden cross, the value is very small, indicating weak momentum.
· Moving averages: The price is firmly pressed down by all short-term moving averages (MA7, MA25), like a cover. The MA99 is even higher, indicating that the long-term trend has not fundamentally reversed.
What does this resemble? Like a boxer with a bleeding nose (daily decline), but you think he's about to fall, actually his arms still have strength, and the next punch might be heavier.
Second, the fatal injury: Capital is running away madly!
Looking at the chart (capital flow) is today's 'core evidence' and also the scariest one.
· Net outflow across the board: Whether it's large orders, medium orders, or small orders, the total net outflow exceeds 72,000 ETH. Especially the 'smart money' large orders are fleeing the most.
· 5-day main force movement: -198,472 ETH! Black and white, nearly 200,000 ETH has been dumped by the main force. This is no longer an 'adjustment'; this is an open retreat.
Remember the iron law of the coin circle: Prices can deceive, especially the flow of large capital. The cost of being deceived is extremely high. Now the big players are lining up in front of the ATM, and you tell me you want to catch the bottom?
Three, weekly and monthly lines: Showing you what 'the power of trend' means.
Looking at the big cycle, the chill is overwhelming:
· Weekly line: The MACD histogram value is -194.79, what does this mean? This is the extreme bearish momentum that is only common in the 2022 bear market! RSI has dropped to 33, indicating a huge inertia of decline.
The monthly line in the chart below: The price hangs in the middle, but the long-term moving average system is chaotic. More importantly, once the monthly-level adjustment starts, it will definitely not end in just a few days.
If you look at the daily, weekly, and monthly lines together, the story becomes clear:
Daily line (hourly battle): Bulls organized a slight resistance at $3050, but they are out of ammunition.
Weekly line (battle level): Bears have absolute strategic advantage and are expanding their gains.
Monthly line (war level): The direction is determined, and the descending channel has just opened. Aping gives you a few straightforward truths:
1. 'Bottom hunting' is about 'the bottom of value', not 'the bottom of price'. Now the technical aspect has completely broken through the big cycle, where is the bottom of value? At least wait for the weekly MACD to shrink, right?
2. Don't catch falling knives. ETH dropped from $3,900, the first brake is at $3,050. If you think this is the floor, there is often still a basement below.
3. Wait for the right side, don’t lose. The truly safe entry point is to wait for the daily line to re-establish itself above and stabilize at the MA7 and MA25 moving averages, while the weekly line shows a clear stop-loss candlestick (like a long lower shadow). Better to earn less than to lose more.
Currently, ETH's daily line is a 'false repair', the weekly line is 'clear decline', and the monthly line is 'direction turned bearish'. The funding, technical, and cyclical aspects form a triple resonance that is bearish.
Strategically:
· Heavy investors: Every small rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions and lower risks.
· Light positions/empty positions: Keep your hands steady! The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is capital. Patiently wait for the weekly level to stabilize, for the most certain and safest right-side signal.
The market always has opportunities, but the premise is that you have to stay alive at the table. Let's encourage each other!
I am Aping, follow me, and I will help you clear the fog of K-lines to hit the essence of the market.
#行情分析📈 6
