๐บ๐ธ U.S. Deficit Shock: A Macro Change Few Saw Coming
The latest fiscal data from the U.S. has delivered a surprise that even the most experienced analysts had not fully anticipated. A year after the tariff-driven economic approach promoted by Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the U.S. budget deficit has drastically decreased โ and the magnitude of the shift is hard to ignore.
In November 2024, the deficit stood at $367 billion. By November 2025, that figure fell to $193 billion, marking a reduction of 53% in just twelve months. This is not a marginal improvement or a statistical anomaly. It is a structural change that challenged most conventional forecasts and questioned long-held assumptions about tariffs and revenue generation.
For years, critics argued that tariffs would slow growth, fuel inflation, or simply rearrange trade flows without improving public finances. Instead, the data suggests that rising tariff revenues have significantly supported federal revenues โ all without direct tax increases on households. The result is a declining deficit accompanied by a stronger U.S. dollar and renewed confidence in fiscal sustainability.
From a macro perspective, this combination is important. A lower deficit reduces the Treasury's issuance pressure, alters the bond market dynamics, and creates conditions for capital rotation through risk assets. Volatility is likely to increase as markets adjust to these changes, but so are strategic opportunities.
Whether one views this through an economic or geopolitical lens, the message is clear: the U.S. fiscal narrative is changing, and global markets are forced to adapt in real-time.
