December 13th, early morning ETH prediction analysis
ETH initially surged to 3446.12 before quickly retracting, dipping to a low of 3041.10, currently stabilizing at 3091.35, forming a short-term technical bottom with an oversold rebound. The daily chart shows a 'cross star stabilization after a sharp drop' pattern, while the hourly chart indicates a bullish engulfing reversal signal, suggesting that buying pressure at lower levels is starting to enter the market, with a higher probability of a short-term rebound than continued decline. During the decline, trading volume gradually decreased, and during the stabilization phase, trading volume slightly increased, aligning with the logic of 'end of the decline, start of the rebound' in terms of volume and price.
The 3040 level is the lower edge of the previous consolidation platform and is also the 0.618 Fibonacci support level of this upward trend, with strong technical support, making the probability of a breakdown low. The previous sharp decline was driven by panic selling without substantial negative news, and after the panic sentiment is released, the market will return to fundamentals. The fundamentals of ETH, including institutional holdings and the development of Layer 2 ecosystems, have not fundamentally changed, providing a basis for a rebound. The hourly RSI fell to the oversold zone (below 30) and then turned upward, while the MACD green bars shortened and showed the embryonic form of a golden cross, indicating the start of a short-term rebound.
During the rebound process, attention should be paid to the 3180 - 3200 level, as this position is a consolidation platform during the previous retracement, with potential selling pressure from trapped positions. If the rebound encounters resistance in this range, a light short position can be tested. If it unexpectedly breaks below the 3040 support level, stop-loss on long positions and lightly short the market, targeting 2980 - 3000, but the technical probability of this scenario occurring is low and should only be considered as an extreme situation.
Recommendation: Build a light long position around 3060-3075, with a stop-loss below 3040, targeting 3150-3180-3200. If a rebound reaches the 3180 - 3200 range, lightly short the market, with a stop-loss at 3220, targeting around 3120
