BloFin Research Analysis: Why the Fed’s Recent Policy May Not Trigger a Year-End Crypto Rally

The Federal Reserve delivered another rate cut this week, but the crypto market’s reaction has been far more muted than many traders expected. According to new analysis from BloFin Research, the Fed’s policy shift—while generally supportive of risk assets—may not be enough to fuel a year-end crypto rally. And the reasons have less to do with interest rates and more to do with market structure, liquidity, and investor behavior.

BloFin notes that macro liquidity has not meaningfully improved, even after the rate cut. The Fed’s messaging remained cautious, and without clear commitment to sustained easing, institutional capital is staying on the sidelines. Historically, crypto rallies depend less on single rate cuts and more on consistent increases in global liquidity—something we still haven’t seen.

At the same time, ETF inflows have cooled, removing a major driver of upward momentum earlier in the year. Retail traders, usually responsible for explosive year-end surges, remain hesitant due to volatility, recent liquidations, and fears of deeper corrections.

Finally, BloFin highlights that market positioning is still fragile. Whales have been distributing, exchanges are showing weaker spot demand, and leveraged traders are being flushed out regularly.

In short: the macro backdrop isn’t bearish—but it’s not bullish enough to ignite a breakout. Unless liquidity improves or a fresh catalyst emerges, a classic December rally may not materialize this time.