The leading cryptocurrency exchange in the USA, Coinbase, is preparing to launch tools for working with prediction markets and tokenized stocks. At the same time, the Gemini platform received the necessary approval from regulators.
Industry giants Kalshi and Crypto.com have formed a specialized coalition, while Changpeng Zhao aims to reach an audience of 220 million users through BNB Chain. The battle for leadership in the segment, which is valued at $15 billion, has entered an active phase.
Plans of the American platform to launch new products
According to available information, Coinbase's management intends to officially present services for prediction markets and tokenized stocks at an event on December 17. The launch of tokenized securities is expected to be carried out by the company itself without involving third-party partners.
The exchange's top management had previously expressed interest in exploring these areas, but no official statements have been made. Market participants' expectations have intensified following the appearance of screenshots in the social network X hinting at the testing of relevant functionality. A Coinbase representative declined to comment on specific plans, suggesting waiting for the official presentation.
This step aligns with the strategy of creating a 'super app' (everything app). The company's goal is to provide traders with access to a wide range of assets and markets, not lagging behind competitors in service diversification. Earlier this year, Robinhood integrated Kalshi products, while Kraken already offers trading in tokenized US stocks and ETFs for clients outside the United States.
The segment of tokenized equity instruments is showing rapid growth. According to statistics from rwa.xyz, the monthly volume of transfers in this category increased by 32% over the last 30 days, reaching $1.45 billion.
Formation of an industry coalition and regulatory issues
In sync with news from Coinbase, Kalshi and Crypto.com announced the formation of the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM). Founding members of the new alliance include Coinbase, Robinhood, and the sports gaming platform Underdog.
Matt David, a member of the CPM executive board, emphasized the importance of joining forces. According to him, the US is a key frontier for the industry's development, and the current dynamics require a unified position of market participants.
The coalition's activities will focus on strengthening the federal legislative framework. Key tasks include developing nationwide standards for trading integrity, preventing insider trading, and countering excessive regulation at the state level.
Sarah Slane, head of corporate development at Kalshi, noted the long-standing collaboration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). She stated that prediction markets should operate with reliable federal guarantees ensuring transparency and consumer protection.
Licensing of Gemini and the stock market reaction
The Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss twins, has also entered into competitive battles. The Gemini Space Station Inc. division received CFTC approval to operate as a derivatives exchange.
This permission allows the company to offer event contract trading services to existing clients from the US. In documents related to the planned IPO, Gemini listed prediction markets (economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts) among its priority products.
Following the announcement of the approval, Gemini's stock rose by 28% in after-hours trading. The company stated its intention to expand its derivatives lineup for American clients, including crypto futures and options.
This regulator's decision is another step in the policy of acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham. She is known for her support of the digital asset industry and is taking steps to develop trading on regulated platforms.
Integration of services into the BNB Chain ecosystem
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao is also expanding his presence in this sector. On December 4, he announced the launch of a new prediction market based on the BNB Chain blockchain. A key feature of the platform is the ability to earn returns on users' funds while waiting for event outcomes.
The project is supported by YZiLabs (formerly Binance Labs), which manages assets totaling over $10 billion. The day before, the non-custodial wallet Trust Wallet implemented a forecasting feature. The first integration partner was the Web3 protocol Myriad, allowing users to bet on politics, sports, and market trends. The audience of Trust Wallet numbers 220 million people.
In October, BNB Chain completed integration with Polymarket, and the provider Opinion Labs, also supported by YZiLabs, launched its mainnet.
Launch of the platform by Donald Trump's media holding
Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns the social network Truth Social, is also entering the prediction markets segment. The company plans to launch the Truth Predict service, allowing users to bet on a wide range of events—from political elections to changes in inflation rates.
To process transactions, Truth Predict will use the infrastructure of Crypto.com Derivatives North America. Testing is expected to begin soon.
Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes stated that the project aims to 'democratize information' and will allow citizens to utilize 'the wisdom of the crowd', breaking the monopoly of global elites on market control.
Investment valuation of the sector and legal risks
The popularity of prediction markets surged sharply after a US federal court overturned the ban on betting related to elections. Weekly trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi platforms reached record levels, surpassing peaks from last year's presidential campaign.
Investor interest in the sector continues to grow. Kalshi's valuation after a recent funding round more than doubled, reaching $11 billion. Polymarket, according to reports, plans to raise capital at a valuation of up to $15 billion.
Traditional financial institutions, including CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, are also exploring opportunities to enter this market. However, regulatory uncertainty remains a limiting factor.
In October, Kalshi filed a lawsuit against the New York Gaming Commission, accusing the agency of overstepping its authority in attempting to regulate activities that fall under federal jurisdiction. Legal disputes regarding the legality of prediction markets continue, creating a complex legal backdrop for all industry participants.
