In-depth analysis
1. Legal uncertainty (Bearish impact)
Overview:
FET continues to suffer the consequences of Ocean Protocol's withdrawal from the ASI Alliance in October 2025. A class action alleges that Ocean sold 263 million FET tokens (approximately 120 million dollars at the height of the crisis) after converting its OCEAN holdings, thus creating sustained selling pressure (CoinMarketCap).
In summary:
the unresolved legal dispute heightens fears of new token unlocks (660 million OCEAN remain unconverted) and instability in governance. This undermines confidence in the dynamics of FET supply, particularly with a monthly volatility exceeding 35%.
To watch:
the court decisions regarding the lawsuit and the clarification of the remaining conversions of OCEAN.
2. Rotation of the cryptocurrency market (mitigated impact)
Overview:
Bitcoin's dominance has reached 58.86% (up 0.39% over 24 hours), indicating a rotation of capital at the expense of altcoins. The altcoin seasonality index remains at 'Bitcoin Seasonality' (score: 19), favoring safer assets in a context of macroeconomic uncertainty.
In plain terms:
AI tokens like FET are struggling despite sectoral catalysts (e.g., NVIDIA results). The trading volume of FET over 24 hours has dropped by 21.73% to reach $80.8 million, reflecting reduced liquidity as investors turn to BTC/ETH.
3. Technical weakness (bearish impact)
Overview:
FET is trading at $0.235, below all key moving averages (7-day SMA: $0.244, 30-day SMA: $0.269). The RSI (42.72) indicates neutral momentum, but resistance looms between $0.29 and $0.32 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
What this means:
the price remains trapped in a descending channel since October 2025. A close below $0.23 could trigger a new test of the November low ($0.225), while a return above $0.27 is crucial for the outlook of a bullish reversal.
Conclusion
The decline of FET can be explained by a triple conjunction of legal uncertainties, risk aversion in the markets, and a fragile technical structure. While the recent launch of ASI Chain DevNet (ASI Alliance) offers long-term prospects, short-term sentiment depends on the clarification of the legal framework and the evolution of Bitcoin.
Key point to watch: Can FET maintain support at $0.225 or will new selling pressure test the annual lows?$FET
