The bottom of altcoins is never smashed out by a big bullish line; it is honed by the 'patience' of retail investors and the 'scythe' of institutions — today's DOGE just happens to be turning in this 'grinding wheel'.
This morning I opened the 4-hour K line on OKEX, and DOGE was still hovering around 0.136, this position looks familiar, right? Three days ago it fell from a high of 0.153, directly smashing through the support at 0.14, and is now stuck in the range of 0.135-0.14 'playing dead'. Someone asked me, 'Has it stabilized or is it going to continue to drop?' Let's not rush to conclusions; let's break down today's market and news.
First, let's look at the overall market sentiment: today the entire cryptocurrency circle is considered 'slightly warm but weak' — BTC rose by 2.9% to touch 92600, ETH followed with a 2% increase, but market sentiment is still in the 'fear zone' (sentiment index 28). DOGE, as an 'old hand' in meme coins, has always moved with the market: when the market rises, it rises; when the market falls, it falls even harder. Today, it didn't follow BTC to surge but instead moved sideways at a low level, which actually hides some tricks.
Now let’s look at DOGE's own situation: Do you remember the wave of institutional buying on December 10? The trading volume exploded by 312%, directly pulling the price from 0.14 to 0.153, but it couldn't hold and fell back down. Today, on-chain data shows that the positions of these two 'big players', Robinhood and Binance, haven't changed — Robinhood still holds 27.1 billion DOGE (about 4.8 billion USD), and Binance has 15.7 billion. What does this indicate? Institutions haven't run away; instead, they've placed a lot of buy orders around 0.135 to 'catch blood'. A retail friend told me yesterday, 'I sold half my position at 0.136, and as soon as I sold, it got eaten up.' This is a typical case of 'being bottom-picking by institutions'.
My personal judgment is: today DOGE is 'false weakness, real accumulation'. Look at the RSI in the 4-hour chart, it's around 29 — it's almost touching the oversold line. Normally, it should have rebounded by now, but it just isn't rising. Why? Institutions are 'grinding retail investors': if you can't hold on and sell at a loss, they will buy; if you dare to chase the rise, they will smash it down. SOL played this trick before, it hovered around 120 for three days at the end of November, and once retail investors were all out, institutions directly pushed it to 140. Looking back now, it's all blood.
But don’t be too optimistic; there's a bearish news that needs to be mentioned: the 13 departments just put USDT under regulatory scrutiny, and the domestic OTC channels are basically blocked. This is an 'indirect blow' to DOGE — retail investors wanting to enter the market will have to take more detours, and short-term capital flow will definitely not increase. So even if institutions want to push it up today, they dare not push it too high, fearing there won't be anyone to take their positions.
Speaking of which, some may ask: 'Master, should I buy or sell now?' My advice is: for those with chips, don't sell below 0.135; this position is being absorbed by institutions. For those without chips, don't rush to bottom-pick; wait until it stabilizes above 0.14 before entering. Remember, DOGE has never been a 'slow bull'; it either moves sideways for half a month or surges directly with a big green candle. The current bottoming process is waiting for a 'catalyst' — it could be Musk tweeting again, or the market making another push.
Finally, let me share my heartfelt thoughts: in the past few years in the cryptocurrency circle, I have seen many retail investors who 'pick bottoms halfway up the mountain' and many veterans who 'sell out before the launch'. Today’s game with DOGE is being played big by institutions. We small retail investors shouldn’t be pawns; we should be 'people waiting for the wind to come'.
Twelve years of financial journey, the exclusive secret of the pioneers in the cryptocurrency circle: insight into the market, proceed steadily. Pay attention to how the Master teaches you to grow steadily in value. In investments, risks and opportunities coexist; blind operations are a big taboo in the cryptocurrency circle!
