According to Cointelegraph, short-term Bitcoin holders (STHs) have shown resilience despite the cryptocurrency's negative performance since the beginning of the year (YTD) and its struggle to surpass the $100,000 mark. Throughout 2025, STH holders managed to register profits for 66% of the year, even while Bitcoin was trading below its annual opening price. The perceived STH price at $81,000 was a pivotal sentiment marker, separating phases of panic and recovery. Unrealized losses shrank from -28% to -12%, indicating a reduction in capitulation.
The price volatility of Bitcoin in 2025 can be attributed to the behavior of a group of short-term coin holders from 1 to 3 months. The price of the cryptocurrency often reacted to its realized price, resulting in alternating periods of profitability and unrealized net loss (NUPL). At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin remained above this cost basis for nearly two months, providing short-term coin holders with sustainable profits. However, prices in February and March experienced a drop below the realized price of the group, leading to one of the longest loss periods of the year.
Momentum changed significantly from late April to mid-October, as Bitcoin experienced a 172-day period of primarily profitable activity for short-term coin holders. Despite the broader trend declining, these recoveries increased the profitability of short-term coin holders beyond market expectations. In late October, the market dropped again below the realized price, leading to the start of a 45-day loss period for short-term coin holders coinciding with the expansion of the red NUPL zone.
The profitability of coin holders in 2025 was more affected by Bitcoin's ability to recover its cost basis from trending directions. These recurring recoveries, even in a negative environment since the beginning of the year, allowed short-term coin holders to achieve a profit ratio of up to two-thirds. With Bitcoin recovering towards $92,500, the unrealized losses for short-term coin holders decreased from -28% to -12%, indicating a reduction in forced selling and emotional exhaustion. The realized price of Bitcoin at $81,000 remains a psychological pivot point, marking the transition from capitulation to stability.
New investors entering the market within days to weeks approach breakeven, reinforcing this stable structure. If Bitcoin continues to improve the profitability of coin holders in the short term while maintaining its position above the $81,000 base, year-end corrections may be nearing completion, paving the way for the next expansionary phase. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading movements involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions. Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article.$BTC
