Core Analysis of Future Trends in the Crypto Market: The Triple Game of Liquidity, Policy, and Value Logic

1. The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates as expected, with asset scale expanding implicitly (not explicitly acknowledged verbally). The core direction of the market going forward is anchored to the actions before Powell's departure, which is set for June; the movements during the policy transition period will directly dominate the short-term market rhythm.

2. The anticipated 'regulatory bull market' has yet to start, primarily constrained by the liquidity gap that has not been filled, and the core regulatory policies have not yet been implemented. The policy direction under the new Federal Reserve Chair is still unclear and requires continuous tracking and verification, making it difficult to form effective positive support for the time being.

3. This bear market has essential differences from the past; large institutions' holdings and ETF layouts provide strong support for mainstream coins, making significant drops in Bitcoin and Ethereum unlikely as seen in the past. However, altcoins lack funding and institutional backing, and their survival completely relies on fundamental hard strength, leading to high uncertainty.

4. Whether the altcoin season can be restarted depends on whether the industry can deliver practical value applications. If it continues to rely solely on narrative hype without genuine practical scenario support, most altcoins are likely to gradually trend towards zero, accelerating industry clearance.

5. Trump has a clear friendly attitude towards the crypto sector, and his family is deeply involved in crypto arrangements, with policy tendencies having a far-reaching impact on the industry. If he remains in office, it will continue to release positive expectations for the industry; if there are changes in his position, market expectations may be pressured to adjust accordingly.

6. The direction of Japan's monetary policy has an implicit transmission effect on the crypto market. Previously, during the easing cycle, the depreciation of the yen drove local funds into crypto assets for hedging. If Japan resumes interest rate cuts or increases easing measures, it is expected to bring incremental liquidity to mainstream coins in the short term. However, combined with the current core contradictions in the market, this can only serve as a localized buffer and is unlikely to change the overall trend.