$BTC From a technical parameter perspective, we can analyze the future trend of Bitcoin from the following aspects:

Moving Average System:

The short-term moving averages show a bearish arrangement trend, which creates certain pressure on price increases, indicating a relatively high possibility of decline from the moving average perspective.

MACD Indicator:

Currently, the bearish strength is dominant, and the probability of price decline in the short term is relatively high. However, if the subsequent DIF crosses above the DEA to form a golden cross, there may be an opportunity for an increase.

Price Trend:

From the 1-hour candlestick chart, the price once surged to 93,547.3 before significantly retracting, and the current price is around 90,278.7, which is in a relatively low area recently. Although there is a downward trend in the short term, there is also a possibility of a rebound from an oversold position. If the price can effectively break through the moving average pressure above, the probability of an increase will increase; if it continues to operate below the moving average and breaks below the recent low of 89,429.0, the probability of further decline will increase.

Trading Volume:

From the histogram of trading volume, there has been a certain expansion in recent trading volume, but overall, the volume does not show a particularly obvious trend of sustained expansion or contraction, and its impact on price is relatively limited.

Based on the analysis of the above technical parameters, the probability of decline in the short term (such as at the 1-hour or 4-hour level) is relatively high, around 60% - 70%; while the probability of an increase is relatively low, around 30% - 40%.

However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is influenced by various factors, and technical analysis is only a part of it. Market sentiment, regulatory policies, macroeconomic factors, and other factors will also have a significant impact on price trends, so this probability is only a rough judgment based on the current technical parameters, and the actual trend may vary.