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#USGDPUpdate BREAKING: US Q3 GDP came in at 4.3% ,$SOL Expectations: 3.3% This is a MASSIVE growth in U.S. economy which is a good sign. This continues growth means ISM will grow and enter the expansion phase which has historically been bullish for crypto. The last 2 major Altseasons of 2017 and 2021 started when ISM was above 55. Now if you look at the chart, The last 3 GDP readings resulted in a 4%-5% short-term correction in Bitcoin but it always pumps back higher. In the mid and long term, the growing US economy means less risk of reccesion which is bullish for all markets.
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#USNonFarmPayrollReport US NFP NOVโ25 PREVIEW: We have released a detailed preview report on the Nov'25 Non Farm Payroll report. 1. We expect Nov'25 headline job gains fell to 80,000 in Novโ25 from 1,19,000 in Sepโ25. Octโ NFP we expect around -20,000. Federal government employment was likely a substantial drag though due to DOGE deferred resignations. 2. The unemployment rate likely remained sideways at 4.4% in November. Average hourly earnings growth likely remained subdued in October before ticking higher in November. The average workweek appears to have improved in November as well, adding further support to labor income growth. 3. For now, the labor markets look stable. The year end seasonality might be a factor supporting labor markets as well. 4. Initial jobless claims have been subdued, continuing claims are sideways & employment component in service sector surveys have improved in last 2 months. Measures of labor demand have also improved in recent months, including the Conference Board labor differential and JOLTS job openings. But ADP private employment is a negative outlier, with a steep drop in November (-32k), following a solid 47k pickup in October. 5. The DOGE impact as per us is a 60k decline in October, followed by a 20k drag in November. 6. In summary, Oct & Nov NFP data can be very noisy and markets might not get a straight conclusion post the data release. We looked at 2013 shutdown to see possible patterns. In November 2013, the month following the federal government shutdown, the unemployment rate fell by 30bps. However, this was the result of a massive 940k gain in household employment, of which 340k were government wage and salary workers. The November jump followed a similarly outsized 880k drop in October household employment, of which 507k were government wage and salary workers. 7. On rate cut pricing, we don't expect much change post the NFP data release. We continue to expect two more rate cuts of 25 bps each in CY26, one in the 17th June FOMC meeting & the last cut in the 16th Sep FOMC meeting.
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