Bitcoin shows an unusual and highly bullish on-chain divergence on the Binance platform, according to an analysis shared by CryptoOnchain using CryptoQuant data.
Investor behavior on the platform indicates strong and aggressive accumulation rather than distribution and selling. Instead of sending coins to exchanges to sell, market participants are doing the exact opposite, withdrawing Bitcoin from Binance at a pace we haven’t seen in years.
Increasing withdrawals and diminishing selling interest.
The first chart highlights Bitcoin withdrawal transactions from Binance, measured using the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA-30). Data shows that withdrawal activity has sharply increased, reaching around 3,1 thousand daily transactions on December 3.
This figure represents the highest level of withdrawal activity since May 2018, indicating a strong shift towards self-custody of coins. Historically, such behavior reflects long-term holding strategies rather than short-term speculation, as investors remove coins from exchanges when they do not intend to sell.
Deposits have fallen to their lowest levels in years.
The second chart focuses on the other side of the equation: Bitcoin deposit transactions on Binance. Here, the divergence becomes more apparent.
While withdrawals are rising significantly, the 30-day moving average for deposit transactions has dropped to nearly 320 transactions, its lowest level since 2017. Typically, deposits increase when coin holders prepare to sell, especially near major high levels. However, current data shows a completely opposite behavior.
This sharp decline in deposits indicates that new selling pressure is almost absent, even as Bitcoin trades near record levels (at that time).
A classic model of supply shock.
CryptoOnchain describes this divergence – where withdrawals have reached a 7-year high and deposits have hit an 8-year low – as a classic supply shock scenario.
Under normal circumstances, historical price peaks tend to attract profit-taking, leading to increased exchange deposits. Instead, the available supply is being steadily removed from order books, tightening the available liquidity. With fewer coins available for sale, even a moderate demand can have a disproportionate impact on the price.
This behavior reflects strong conviction among coin holders who seem to believe that the price discovery phase for Bitcoin is not over yet.
What does this divergence suggest for the future?
While Bitcoin is trading in the $90,000 - $91,000 range, on-chain behavior shows minimal selling interest and maximum commitment to holding. Data indicates that investors are positioning themselves for higher prices rather than exiting their positions.
As the supply from Binance continues to deplete and selling pressure remains historically low, current setups indicate structural conditions that preceded significant upward movements in past cycles, driven not by noise, but by scarcity.
