Holding onto thousands of small coins hoping for a hundredfold increase? Brother, don’t get trapped by illusions.
I still remember the two waves of markets in 2017 and 2021, where indeed some people achieved dramatic wealth increases with altcoins. At that time, the market was small, and funds had nowhere to go; once there was a hot trend, everyone flocked to small coins, creating countless myths of 'getting rich overnight'.
But today I must burst this bubble: today's altcoins are no longer the 'high-multiplier Bitcoin' of the past. As an old player who has been in the crypto space for many years, I have seen too many friends transition from 'full of hope' to 'questioning life'.
Now I want to tell you why the golden age of altcoins is over.
1 The market has changed drastically, and the flow of funds is fundamentally different.
Seven associations recently jointly issued a risk warning, clearly stating that virtual currencies are not issued by monetary authorities, are not legal tender, and cannot be used as currency in the market. This conveys a clear signal: the regulatory environment has fundamentally changed.
Currently, Bitcoin's 'circle of friends' has upgraded—family office wealth managers, pension teams managing tens of billions, and hedge fund big shots from Wall Street. These institutional investors allocate assets through formal channels, with tens of billions of dollars flowing in and out daily.
They focus on macroeconomics, interest rate policies, and compliance product capital inflows—these 'hard indicators'—and will not participate in the 'guessing concepts' game of altcoins.
In contrast, the altcoin market is still dominated by the 'old trio': venture capital firms with early chips, platforms making money from listing fees, and large on-chain holders, along with retail investors looking to 'bet small to win big.' These two types of funds are like parallel worlds—the former are the 'regular army,' while the latter are 'guerrillas.'
2 The logic of altcoin price increases has already failed.
Bitcoin's price fluctuations have a clear logic: look at the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and cuts, the inflow of compliance products, and the trend of the US dollar index. These are all hard data that can be analyzed.
As for altcoins? They rely entirely on 'telling stories'—hype around a new public chain, hearing about an airdrop to rally, or a certain track being boosted by influencers. Even increases in on-chain transaction fees can be treated as 'good news' to speculate on for half a day.
The result is: when Bitcoin is stagnant, a public chain token that no one pays attention to might sneakily rise by 50%; when Bitcoin starts to rise, altcoins instead fall as funds are withdrawn.
Some newcomers ask me, 'Bitcoin has risen, so why are my altcoins still falling?' The answer is simple: funds have already started anew, who still looks to Bitcoin for guidance?
3 The risks in the altcoin market are severely underestimated.
Altcoins have small market caps and low liquidity, making them susceptible to being controlled by 'whales,' leading to drastic price fluctuations, and they may go to zero in a few years.
Many altcoin projects are essentially pyramid schemes disguised as 'black-hearted coins,' developed through layers of distribution and recruiting new members. Once there are no new buyers, the price will collapse.
Some criminals take advantage of this opportunity to promote trading speculation activities, posing as 'stablecoins' or 'air coins' (like π coins) to carry out illegal fundraising and pyramid schemes.
Such altcoins usually lack a clear issuer and have extremely low trading prices. After the hype dissipates, they crash due to a lack of market liquidity and eventually disappear from the market.
4 The current market rhythm is ridiculously fast.
The current pace of the altcoin market is so fast that it makes one question life. This week the whole market is discussing AI concepts; you just followed the trend to buy in, and next week the funds are already speculating on new public chains; by the time you cut losses on AI to chase new public chains, the following week Meme coins start their 'chaos.'
The rotation of funds across various sectors may take less than a month. By the time retail investors figure out the 'rules,' the market has long ended, and they are left holding a pile of 'high-position chips.'
When you see a concept booming, it is often already in the latter half of the market cycle. The earliest entrants might be robots or very astute traders, and those who follow are just providing liquidity for their exit.
Buying tokens that claim to be AI, modular, or distributed storage is essentially betting on 'whether the next wind can just happen to hit you on the head.'
5 Genuine advice for newcomers.
The core of making money in the coin circle is not 'betting big or small,' but recognizing 'who the main character is and who the supporting roles are.' Rather than being chives in the 'chaotic battle' of altcoins, it's better to first understand the logic of mainstream currencies.
Only invest in projects that you understand and believe in, so you can outperform at least 90% of people.
Maintain a rational investment attitude and do not be blinded by so-called high returns. The price of virtual currencies is highly volatile, and if you do not understand the market trends or lack sufficient risk tolerance, you may not be suitable to participate.
Enable withdrawal address whitelist features, set fund passwords, and regularly check account activity records. Never disclose any key information such as account number, password, or 2FA codes to anyone.
Every time the market heats up, altcoins always welcome a new batch of speculators. They look at historical growth data, firmly believing 'this time it’s different.' But when you find yourself staying up late watching the market, your emotions swayed by every price fluctuation, you have long been reduced to fodder in the market game.
The true winners in the coin circle are not those who chase every hot topic, but those who know when to hold firm and when to exit. For most ordinary investors, a rational view of market fluctuations and staying away from those altcoins without practical value is the most effective way to protect their 'wallets.'
Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and precise points of knowledge in the coin circle, becoming your navigation in the coin world; learning is your greatest wealth!
