Ethereum has recently experienced a significant pullback, but it hasn't 'collapsed.' On the contrary, the price has steadily remained above the important psychological level of $3000, indicating that the market acknowledges this position and there hasn't been panic selling.

From the trend perspective, ETH is slowly recovering upwards. However, on the daily chart, the downtrend line and the 50-day moving average overlap, forming a relatively hard 'ceiling.' The price has previously been pressed down here once, so as it approaches this area now, the market will naturally be more cautious. But the key point is not whether it will break through immediately, but rather: has the price been quickly pushed back down? Currently, it has not.

Looking at the moving average structure, the overall outlook is somewhat positive.

The 100-day moving average is below the price, acting like a 'support cushion';

The price is still above the 200-day moving average, indicating that the medium to long-term structure has not been damaged;

The only trouble lies with the 50-day moving average, which is the biggest pressure point in the short term.

The trading volume also provides a lot of confidence. Compared to the major drop in October, the number of sellers has noticeably decreased, while the trading volume during price increases has actually increased. This indicates that the market is not in a 'distribution panic,' but rather seems to be gradually changing hands and digesting holdings.

On the indicators, the RSI is around 50, neither hot nor cold. This is usually a position where the market is 'gathering strength,' rather than a top or bottom position, making it easier to continue in the original direction.

Next, Ethereum has roughly two paths to take:

If it successfully stands above the 50-day moving average and stabilizes above $3400–$3500, then there is a chance to challenge $3800 or even $4000;

If it is pressed back down again, it will likely oscillate between $3000–$3400, preparing for the next market movement.

In simple terms: this is not the craziest stage yet, but it is far from being dangerous; it feels more like paving the way for the next wave of market movement.