A storm is coming! The Bank of Japan is about to play the historic interest rate hike card. Can the cryptocurrency market withstand this 'de-leveraging tsunami'? 💥 December 19 is not only the day of the central bank's decision— it may also be the beginning of the collapse of global arbitrage trading. Is your position ready for stress testing? 🔥
Core judgment: $ETH , $SOL , $BNB face severe tests! Although the market has partially priced this in, high leverage positions are still in the 'high-risk zone' ⚠️, and it is crucial to avoid blindly bottom-fishing before the meeting.
According to authoritative sources such as the Securities Times, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has sent a clear signal: the December 19 meeting will assess the pros and cons of interest rate hikes. Market pricing shows that the probability of a rate hike has soared to over 80%, but the key disagreement lies in:👇
➡️ Baseline scenario: Rate hike of 25 basis points to 0.75% (highest since 1995).
➡️ Risk scenario: If inflation exceeds expectations, or aggressive rate hike of 50 basis points.
➡️ Unexpected scenario: Delay in rate hike → Short covering rebound 🎢
💸 Yen carry trade: The collapsing domino.
Japan's long-standing zero interest rate has birthed the largest arbitrage strategy globally — borrowing yen to buy US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other high-yield assets. Once reversed, the shockwave will be huge!
📉 Historical case: On the day of the July 2024 rate hike, Bitcoin plummeted 23%, with over $20 billion liquidated across the network.
📊 Current risk: Nearly $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions still face liquidation risk.
Sensitivity of currency leverage and key support levels:
· BTC 🟥 High sensitivity | Support $85,000 | High risk.
· ETH 🟥 Extremely high sensitivity | Support $2,600 | Extremely high risk (DeFi leverage disaster area).
· SOL 🟧 Medium sensitivity | Support $180 | Medium to high risk (Asian fund preference)
🎙️ Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal warns: “Yen carry trades are the largest macro leverage globally, and unwinding will simultaneously impact stocks, bonds, and crypto markets!”
But 2025 will be different:
✅ The market has priced in expectations 3 months in advance.
✅ Open interest has decreased by 40% compared to the peak in 2024.
✅ Federal Reserve's 2026 rate cut expectations create a hedge.
🛡️ Practical strategy: Operation checklist before December 19.
· Leverage users: Reduced to below 3 times, reserving 150% margin buffer.
· Spot holders: Set ladder stop-loss (BTC $85,000 / $80,000).
· Opportunity camp: Prepare USDT, if BTC drops below $82,000 after the rate hike, buy in batches.
🚀 Note: Elon Musk concept small 'milk' 🐶 — 'p●u●p●p●i●e●s'
Those meme coins riding on Musk's hype on the Ethereum chain (you know what I mean!).
Under low gas conditions, there is movement! Low chips, fierce pull, it may be an excellent ambush target! 🐕
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What do you think? Will this rate hike trigger a new round of crashes, or is it a reversal signal after all bearish news is priced in?
How is your position currently responding? Come to the comments section and discuss! 👇
