Recently, the background has been almost overwhelmed by ZEC's 'die-hard fans'! The screen is full of shouts for 'target 700 dollars' and 'heading straight for 1000 dollars', which makes me feel both amused and compelled to advise, my brothers, don't rush to draw big pies! Today we won't mess around; let's purely analyze ZEC's real situation from a technical perspective. My personal view is very direct: those who understand can avoid taking unnecessary detours!
First, let me clarify: we only discuss technical patterns and do not provide any trading guidance, after all, there are no gods in the market, only smart people who follow the trend. Alright, enough chitchat, let’s get to the point!
First point, the moving average system has long since welded the 'bearish signal' shut! Those who understand a bit of technology know that moving averages are the 'steering wheel' of the market. Now the arrangement of ZEC's moving averages is simply a textbook-level bearish template: the 7-day short-term moving average obediently lies below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is firmly suppressed by the 50-day medium-term moving average. This 'layered pressure' pattern directly declares that the medium-term downtrend has not changed at all. Some may say, 'Isn't there a rebound recently?' Hold on, this rebound just happens to be stuck between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, a typical 'breather during the decline' counter-trend move. In the last two days, it has been repeatedly bouncing around the 450-470 range, which, to put it bluntly, is just being rubbed against the ground by the 50-day moving average. Can it break through? My personal opinion is: difficult! Without a solid trading volume support, it's purely aimless struggling.
Second point, don't get overly excited about the MACD golden cross; this is just a "flash of light after a decline"! Many beginners see a golden cross below the zero line and think a reversal is imminent, eager to enter the market with full positions. However, if we look rationally, this weekly rebound is essentially due to the exhaustion of downward momentum, and the market needs to take a breather. It doesn't mean that the bulls are genuinely rising. It's like a tired runner stopping to drink water; it doesn't mean they're going to run backward! The medium to long-term bearish pattern hasn't been broken, and a weak golden cross cannot support a significant market movement.
Third point, the Bollinger Bands and previous trapped positions are the "two mountains" of ZEC's rebound! Currently, the price is above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands at 425, but the resistance at the upper band is not to be taken lightly. Given the current speed at which the upper band is descending, it will likely drop to around 500 next week, forming a strong resistance level. More crucially, the 500-550 range was previously an important support level; after being broken, it has turned into a "concentration camp for trapped positions," filled with those who previously bought in. Once the price rises to this level, there will definitely be people looking to break even, leading to significant selling pressure. Want to break through this range in the short term? Unless there is super positive news or a large influx of capital, it’s highly likely to just tap it and turn back down.
Fourth point, the divergence between volume and price is the biggest "thunder"! The most fatal issue with this rebound is the "lack of volume"! Trading volume is shrinking day by day; this kind of "price increase without volume" is like water without a source or trees without roots, and it can't last long. In simple terms, the current rise is just existing funds being shuffled around; either traders like me, who are bearish, are adjusting positions, or there is simply no new incremental capital entering the market. Without incremental capital, trying to achieve a reversal? That's just wishful thinking!
Let's review the overall trend of ZEC. After falling from the historical high of 775, the long-term upward trend has been completely destroyed. The current weekly rebound can at most be considered a "technical repair in a bear market." Based on my previous assessment of the entire market, if ZEC cannot break through and stabilize above the strong resistance zone of 500-550, this weekly rebound will likely end and a new round of decline will begin.
As for the operation, there was basically no trading above 470 yesterday, indicating that everyone is watching. Personally, I choose to hold patiently and wait for the end of the rebound. It's still the same statement: the market is never short of opportunities, but what it lacks is patience and rationality. Don't let a temporary rebound cloud your judgment; preserving your capital is the most important thing!
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